The ESSENTIAL Football Show 
Top 51 Cap Space (per Spotrac): 2026: $8.7 million | 2027: $42.6 million | 2028: $215.1 million
Draft Picks: 2027: 1-7 | 2028: 1-7
Football Decision Makers: GM Jason Licht | HC Todd Bowles | OC Zac Robinson | DC Larry Foote / George Edwards | ST Danny Smith
State of the Team
The 2026 Tampa Bay Buccaneers strike me as lacking in excitement.
Unfortunately, as I look at Tampa Bay’s depth charts, and consider what this team has been in three seasons with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, I struggle to see how this team is going to top the 2024 version that lost to Washington in the Wild Card Round… and that team never struck me as a championship contender.
The Bucs have enough good players, and Baker Mayfield is a good enough quarterback, that they should be solid, which will probably give them a shot to win the NFC South.
Unfortunately, I don’t see it going much further than that, which leaves Tampa Bay at a crossroads; with an offense coming off an injury-decimated season, and a defense that created a potential hole at outside cornerback while adding little in the way of high-end purchases outside of 15th overall pick Rueben Bain at edge rusher, I don’t see the Bucs as much more than a 9/10 win team that could win a playoff game, but would need an awful lot of breaks to go on a run. Even if they play to their upside - and I’ll address some of the grades that might seem a tad low - then that’s what we’re talking about, and if Tampa’s injury problems persist, they might find themselves on the outside of the playoff race, but too competitive to be in the quarterback lottery.
Offense
Grade Chart: Blue (Elite), Purple (Plus/Impact), Dark Green (Solid Starter), Light Green (Adequate Starter), Light Grey (Mediocre Starter), Dark Grey (Backup), Black (Target), White (Ungraded), Orange (Rookie)
When I look at Tampa Bay’s offensive depth chart relative to a year ago, there is a good bit more dark and light green where there used to be purple.
It starts at quarterback, where Baker Mayfield is certainly capable of getting on a heater, but hasn’t signed the contracts he’s signed and gone on the journey he’s gone on because he’s an elite quarterback. Mayfield is an enjoyable watch - he can push the ball to all levels of the field, is willing to be aggressive turning the ball loose, and plays with great competitive spirit - but it would be a bit of a surprise to see him on an All-Pro team given the inconsistencies and some of his physical limitations.
The skill group around him has been badly diminished by injury; Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving were both purple on my grade scale entering 2025, but Godwin put up modest production amidst limited availability, and while Irving has a strong case for a purple tag given how electric he is when right, I worry about a back that small and what the potential lack of volume he can handle means for his overall impact.
Two of the younger receivers, Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan, were tracking to have purple and dark green tags (respectively) at one stage in their careers; Egbuka was slowed by a hamstring in the back half of last seasons and McMillan suffered a horrific neck injury in the preseason, which has slowed the roll on their development, though healthy versions of these players would get a bump.
On the offensive line, Tristan Wirfs is a stud at left tackle, and if the whole group is healthy, left guard Ben Bredeson ensures there’s not a hole in their starting five. Graham Barton is a terrific mover at center who showed the versatility to bounce out and compete at left tackle early last season, while Cody Mauch showed signs of being a mauler in his second year before injuries knocked his second season off course; both of them can be plus players, and while I see Luke Goedeke as more on the line coming off injury (hence the dark green), he was more of a purple player under offensive coordinator Liam Coen back in 2024.
And that’s the rub; even in the best case scenario, it would take someone surprising in a big way (say, Egbuka making a JSN-type leap as the lead receiver) or new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson rediscovering that Coen magic, to get this group back to their peak.
Unfortunately, Robinson getting that out of this group doesn’t seem like a particularly likely proposition; Robinson inherited some unique pieces from the Arthur Smith regime in Atlanta, and there were plenty of positives to point to in the offense, but his frequent usage of Kyle Pitts as an on-the-ball was one of the more frustrating things I’ve watched over the past two seasons. If you subscribe to the notion that good coaching is about putting players in a tactically advantageous position given their skillset, then asking Pitts to line up in a three-point stance and get blown off the ball - which, off-hand, I’d say happens a good 60% of the time - would seem to be the epitome of bad coaching. It’s one thing to develop a player, but at some point, you’re simply asking a guy to do something he is not equipped to do, which is all the more maddening when said player DOES possess the talent to help the offense in other ways, which we saw down the stretch this year in Atlanta.
Liam Coen moved on to Jacksonville and replicated his success, taking an iffy offensive line situation and turning it into a quality group. That’s not to say Robinson can’t be successful here, but the reality is that Coen has shown himself to be one of the NFL’s true difference-makers as an offensive designer, and Robinson’s first opportunity as a coordinator stuck me as decidedly average.
Defense
As I write about the offense, the argument of “Wait, didn’t the Seahawks just win a Super Bowl with Sam Darnold, can’t Baker Mayfield do the same?” pops in my head.
My answer to that is probably, but that question doesn’t exist in a vacuum. There’s no guarantees, and Darnold had some great moments on the Super Bowl run, but I can imagine a healthy Mayfield leading a similar charge.
Unfortunately, even if the offense got rolling that way, this defense is not going to match what the Seahawks did last season. The Rueben Bain draft pick appears to be one with plenty of upside, but even if Bain turns out to be a “blue” player out of the gate, this defense is lacking in firepower.
That’s not to say there aren’t good players - Jacob Parrish was a nice find in the slot, Yaya Diaby is a solid edge rusher and Calijah Kancey could add a boost up front coming off injury - but outside of safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and defensive tackle Vita Vea, this defense lacks needle-movers who will really tilt the field.
If we rewind to the Super Bowl version of this Bucs defense, the difference in talent is clear; Vea remains, but he was a “blue” player back then, and isn’t as dominant at this stage. The edge rushing duo of Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul was outstanding, Lavonte David was a “blue” player, and whatever you thought about Devin White, there was no question he could run.
The 2026 version of the defense lacks that sort of juice. Perhaps second-round pick Josiah Trotter brings something, but his draft profile indicates he is more of an in-the-box backer than a sideline-to-sideline player, and the veteran duo of Alex Anzalone and Christian Rozeboom is unlikely to be better than average.
As for the back end, apparently Benjamin Morrison is the talk of offseason practices, which would be a big positive, because he endured significant struggles as a rookie. Morrison struck me as playing smaller than his listed 6’0, 190, and lacked the explosive movement traits to compensate; he was non-competitive in many instances, and I think he has an uphill battle to be a quality starter in the NFL. (To cross-check myself and ensure I’m not being too harsh on this, I checked Morrison’s PFF grade; he ranked 110th of 114 eligible corners).
Zyon McCollum is steady on the other side, but he isn’t a dominant player, and while Tykee Smith is a solid player next to Winfield, there just aren’t enough field-tilting players on this defense to compensate for a potential hole at outside cornerback.
We see surprises every season, but this Tampa Bay defense has not played to a consistently high standard for several years, and with head coach Todd Bowles continuing to oversee the defense, there isn’t any radical change coming that could theoretically shake things up. (Bowles is a heck of a coordinator who has overseen great defenses; I’d argue this is more a talent than scheme issue in any case).
Rueben Bain will be exciting to watch, but even if the Bucs had been the team to swing the Myles Garrett trade, there would be potential holes on this defense that are tough to cover up.
Final Takeaways
The Baker Mayfield has been a fun turn in Tampa Bay, but at some point, it seems destined to run out of momentum. The back half of last season was extremely disappointing after some promising moments out of the gate, and while it’s easy to generate optimism in the offseason, folks might focus more on the way things ended if Tampa struggles in early 2026.
That said, the NFC South does not provide the stiffest competition, and the Bucs are certainly talented enough to wind up winning this division.
It’s just a question of whether they can do anything from there.