The ESSENTIAL Football Show 
Top 51 Cap Space: 2026: $47.5 million | 2027: $155.1 million | 2028: $389.1 million
Draft Picks: 2027: 1-5 plus DAL-1, IND-1, KC-6, PHI-6, SF-6 | 2028: 1-6
Football Decision Makers: GM Darren Mougey | HC Aaron Glenn | OC Frank Reich | DC Brian Duker | ST Chris Banjo
State of the Team
There were a lot of bad NFL teams in 2025, but as I sit to review the Jets, I’m amazed that their dumpster fire of a season didn’t land them the #1 overall pick.
To be fair, the Jets finished with the same 3-14 record as several other contenders for the Fernando Mendoza pick, but whether it was posting zero interceptions despite having a Head Coach in Aaron Glenn whose “superpower” is calling plays, or showing a couple interesting ideas with Justin Fields in Week One only for Week Two to look like “that’s all we got” rather than expanding on Fields’s unique skillset, New York was a rough watch in Year One of the Aaron Glenn regime.
The Jets blew up the entire roster mid-season, dealing the foundational pieces of what had been (arguably) the NFL’s best defense a few years ago, and while defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and cornerback Sauce Gardner returned hefty hauls, it also let New York with a roster seriously lacking in talent.
Now New York appears set to run back the Las Vegas playbook from 2025 with a few twists; quarterback Geno Smith won’t be making nearly as much money, and the Jets didn’t trade for him, but they did dust off an old name to take over as offensive coordinator (Frank Reich), and after a tumultuous interview process that almost saw them hire Wink Martindale, only to see him back out due to confusion about whether Glenn would be calling plays, the Jets brought in Brian Duker as part of this equation.
There are some foundation pieces here, but the decision to bring in several declining veterans in the hopes of ensuring a level of “competency” seems like the type of strategy that could blow up spectacularly. Fortunately, that (might) land the Jets with the #1 overall pick next year… which at the end of the day, is probably their best long-term outcome here.
Offense
Geno Smith did his part to contribute to the struggles in Las Vegas last season - even in his peak Seattle days, Smith was a turnover-prone quarterback, and that was badly exacerbated by their chaotic offense - but on the upside, he might be surrounded by better talent in New York.
I say “might” because for all the talk about this offensive line, Dylan Parham, who like Smith, joins the Jets a year after being part of that Raiders debacle, is set to start at left guard. There is no question that New York appears to have a high-end bookend tackle duo in third-year left tackle Ole Fashanu and second-year right tackle Armand Membou, but as talented as those two are, and as solid as Joe Tippmann is at right guard, Josh Myers’s contracts (and the fact Green Bay let him leave for New York) consistently indicate the NFL sees him as “acceptable” at center, but he’s sure not making that Tyler Linderbaum money.
The pass-catching group is similarly in transition; if Garrett Wilson is healthy, he brings plus traits to the table, and Mason Taylor’s rookie tape indicates he’s set to be a solid contributor for a long time to come, but receivers Adonai Mitchell and Omar Cooper Jr., as well as pass-catching tight end Kenyon Sadiq, are all wild cards. Sadiq (16th) and Cooper (30th) were New York’s second and third picks in their three-player 1st round class, but we all know there’s a big gap between Draft Night hype and excelling on the field come September.
New York rounds things out with running back Breece Hall, who could (1) put this offense over the top if everything clicks or (2) be on the move at the trade deadline if this blows up on the launchpad.
The former might sound crazy, but it wasn’t so long ago that many folks were bemoaning Seattle’s decision to move on from Geno Smith to Sam Darnold. At the time, I wrote that I thought the two quarterbacks had more similarities than differences, and I didn’t have a strong feeling about it one way or the other, as I thought both could play winning football; they instead wound up on polar opposite ends of the spectrum, with one on the Super Bowl Champs and the other on the team picking first overall, but while I’m not going to say that Geno lifts the Lombardi if he and Seattle agree on a contract, I do think he would have had a good season in Klint Kubiak’s offense, and would probably be Seattle’s slated Week One starter today.
Defense
One year after they played terrible defense with a bunch of certifiably good, plus, and elite defenders on the roster, the Jets are now looking to turn things around by adding a bunch of veterans in decline, a first-round edge rusher (David Bailey, the #2 overall pick) and a 5’9 slot corner (D’Angelo Ponds, who clocks in at 5’9, 182).
I’ve been beating the drum for Demario Davis since his days bouncing between the Jets and Browns, and I absolutely loved watching him find the right spot to shine in New Orleans, but I’ve been watching his film since I started consuming huge volumes of NFL tape in the back half of 2013, and given that Davis had been around before that (rookie season 2012), it’s crazy to think he’s not susceptible to a huge drop-off at this age.
That drop-off has already happened for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, another player who once had a clear-cut “elite” grade in my book and was among my favorite players to watch; that player is a distant memory, and while Fitzpatrick brings a lot of name value to this defense, he’s not the stone-cold lock to end New York’s interception-less streak that he would have been in his prime.
We can keep going; defensive tackle David Onyemata, who was teammates with Davis in New Orleans years back before a multi-year stint in Atlanta, will turn 34 in November. Edge defenders Joseph Ossai and Kingsley Enagbare are more rotational depth pieces than needle movers, safety Dane Belton fits in the same bucket, and despite all the interceptions last year, it was hard to have a lot of confidence in Nahshon Wright, which is reflected in the one-year deal with only 3.5 million guaranteed that he signed this offseason.
One move I did like is the trade for run-stuffing defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat, who, for all the character flack he’s gotten, put up a lot of really good tape playing on a horrendous Titans defense the past two years. I’ll miss watching Sweat play with Jeffery Simmons, but given that Jermaine Johnson wasn’t working out for the Jets, I think the last two years of Sweat’s rookie contract are an attractive asset to have acquired.
Whether it all adds up to something is the bigger question.
Final Takeaways
In a vacuum, I could see a path to this Jets team being very competitive; to give a more concrete example, if we move this entire roster to Atlanta under Kevin Stefanski in a relatively weak NFC South, I think this squad could have a shot at the division with the right breaks.
The problem is that getting the right breaks often requires a really good plan, and I’m not sure why anyone would expect this coaching staff to provide that. I’m sure Aaron Glenn is a great guy, and he did a good job as Detroit’s defensive coordinator, but he didn’t reinvent defense there, and whatever crazy claims he made this offseason, he provided no evidence whatsoever that he’s a great playcaller/game planner during his first year with the Jets, with a bunch of players who weren’t too far removed from forming one of the league’s better units.
Maybe this all works out, but adding Frank Reich after firing most of the coaching staff, then getting into the situation they did at defensive coordinator… it feels like a lot of the Jets doing Jets things, and it hasn’t translated in the past.
I’m also going to be very interested to see Ponds, who would be the ultimate example of “zigging” while the rest of the league is “zagging” if he can only play in the slot. There are some shorter corners who have held their own on the outside, but there’s also a reason traits are valued at that position, and during a draft when NFL teams were signaling they ALL want to lean into more multi-tight end personnel, the decision to use a valuable pick on a player with that size profile caught my attention. I don’t study college film, so I’ve never seen Ponds play and have nothing against him; I just have questions about what percentage of the snaps he will play if he can only line up in the slot against specific personnel groupings.