The ESSENTIAL Football Show 
Top 51 Cap Space: 2026: $13.2 million | 2027: $54.4 million | 2028: $244.4 million
Draft Picks: 2027: 1-5, LAC 6 | 2028: 1-5, HOU 6, DAL 7, NE 7
Football Decision Makers: GM Mickey Loomis | HC Kellen Moore | OC Doug Nussmeier | DC Brandon Staley | ST Phil Galiano
State of the Team
It is almost an out-of-body experience to write this, but heading into 2026, the New Orleans Saints - under general manager Mickey Loomis - are in a relatively normal cap situation.
No restructuring eight contracts to get under the cap in the Spring. No outlook that shows the Saints got under this year’s cap, but are somehow $50 million over next year’s cap.
Granted, much of this is due to the aggressive growth of the NFL salary cap, and part of why they are in this position today is quarterback Derek Carr’s retirement last offseason, but the point still stands; New Orleans, with a potential franchise quarterback in the fold, is in a position to build this year’s roster from this year’s resources, and to build a foundation for long-term success.
From that perspective, the first year of the Kellen Moore era was a booming success. The Saints have bigger aspirations, but between the early returns on quarterback Tyler Shough, the revival of receiver Chris Olave, and the way the defense came together under coordinator Brandon Staley, the Saints enter 2026 with a very real shot to win the NFC South.
Offense
Tyler Shough has been an interesting evaluation, perhaps in part because I’ve struggled to find a solid comparison, which is odd for a quarterback listed with ideal measurables at 6’5, 220.
The main reason for this is that several quarterbacks who came to mind don’t run the way Shough does. I’d stop short of calling Shough a “dynamic” football runner, but while there is some element of needing a “runway”/open grass, Shough does a great job of eating up ground with his stride length once he gets going, and while I wouldn’t make the quarterback run game a staple of the offense, he presents a legitimate threat in that capacity.
The other reason this is odd is that typically, running ability/lower-body explosiveness shows up in a player’s arm strength, but I don’t think that’s the case for Shough; he has an above-average arm for the NFL, but if you told me I was about to watch film a 6’5, 220 pound with running ability, I would expect a little more juice/pop on his throws. To put it more succinctly, I would say Shough has a lot in common with Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence, minus some of the arm strength, or alternately, a lot in common with former Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan, plus some mobility. (It’s also worth noting that while Shough can get rolling, I don’t think he necessarily has a lot of burst/short-area quickness, and that may be the more translatable aspect of lower-body movement. Ryan Tannehill is one more name worth throwing out, but I thought Tannehill had a stronger frame and a bit more explosiveness to him).
Shough has aspects of his game that need to be cleaned up - I saw a lot of balls that were caught, but could have led to more yards after catch with slightly better placement - but I think that can improve (Dak Prescott Year 1 to Year 2 comes to mind), and Shough demonstrated the mental ability and timing to get through progressions in a variety of concepts, which is another feather in his cap. All in all, I’d stop short of giving him a ringing endorsement, but I thought he improved in the games I’ve studied, and while he might not be tracking to be an elite quarterback, I think he has a reasonable shot to land somewhere between an average and plus player, and with everything the Saints have around him, that could make for a heckuva offense.
In terms of those pieces, there might not be another team with a wider range of outcomes for the supporting cast. At receiver, Chris Olave is coming off an outstanding season, but is only one year removed from significant concussion concerns, and Jordyn Tyson, who the Saints selected with the 8th overall pick, had significant injury issues in college. On the offensive line, center Erik McCoy has only played seven games in each of the past two seasons, left guard David Edwards is slotting into a new environment as a free-agent addition from Buffalo, and while the bookend tackles, Kelvin Banks and Taliese Fuaga, possess the physical traits to be one of the NFL’s better duos, they are relatively young players who who have not yet hit their ceilings. Throw in the running back position, where Travis Etienne joins following a lone breakout season in Jacksonville and Alvin Kamara is searching for a bounce-back year, and there’s a lot of moving pieces at play.
That said, the upside is huge. Cesar Ruiz is more “adequate” at right guard, but the other four starters are in the “solid” to “plus” range, which could certainly make for a Top 10 line. Juwan Johnson is a quality player as a pass-catching tight end, and veteran Noah Fant and third-round pick Oscar Delp offer options, with Delp profiling as a potential difference-maker in the run game. Devaughn Vele is a nice complement to Olave and Tyson to round out the receiving room, and they added a player with an impressive athletic profile in 4th-round pick Bryce Lance, a 6’3, 205 receiver out of North Dakota State who is the younger brother of Trey Lance, who was certainly an impressive NFL athlete even if the quarterbacking bit hasn’t worked out.
With Kellen Moore overseeing the offense, I’d assume the players will be put in good position to succeed. It’s more a matter of health, and development of the offensive tackles, but the scenario where this group is a Top 10 supporting cast on offense is pretty clear; if that comes to fruition, it’s a matter of what Shough can do with it.
Defense
It’s going to be a change seeing the black and gold on defense without Cam Jordan and Demario Davis, but given what they showed down the back half of last season, Brandon Staley’s unit is looking like a tough out in 2026.
Ideally, it will start with edge rusher Chase Young, who played some outstanding ball down the stretch. The former 2nd overall pick has had his moments in the NFL, but as he stacked up performances (including a DOMINANT performance against Atlanta’s Jake Matthews in Week 18), I got the sense that Young has found his feel in terms of the best way to use his (significant) strength and burst to work NFL offensive linemen. He also played with a relentlessness I thought was palpable on film; as I say, Young has had some great stretches in the past, but this was as good as I’ve ever seen him.
He’s got support in the front seven; Carl Granderson is a quality complement across from Young who gives New Orleans two edges with great size (a trait they doubled down on with the trade for former Raider Tyree Wilson), Bryan Bresee, Davon Godchaux, and Nathan Shepherd provide a heavy, experienced three-down front, and 2nd-round pick Christen Miller, who checks in at 6’4, 320, will add to that depth. That should clear things up for the linebackers, which is particularly important for Pete Werner, who brings tremendous speed to the WILL backer spot but plays smaller than his 6’2, 240 listing (I’d believe 230); his new running mate, Kaden Ellis, stands out more for his blitzing (his ability to engage/shed offensive linemen is outstanding for an off-ball linebacker; more often these players are reliant on getting the back in pass pro, or running through a clean lane) rather than his “read-it-out” ability, so he may not get the same boost as Werner. Regardless, it will be fascinating to see how this defense looks with Ellis swapped for Demario Davis; at his peak, Davis did everything well, but his best plays in recent years have gravitated toward “read-it-out” snaps, so Ellis will bring a different flavor than the most recent vintage of Davis.
On the back end, the Saints have two cornerbacks that I have graded as solid; I’m not sure Kool-Aid McKinstry or Quincy Riley will ever be elite, as I don’t know that they would have the physical traits to thrive as press-man corners, but in Brandon Staley’s defense, where they are asked to work from off coverage and depth, this duo is pretty darn good. I was particularly impressed by how many plays Riley was making down the stretch; he saw his share of targets in the games I studied, and I never got the feeling the 2025 4th-rounder was a “mark” despite lining up at outside cornerback.
The Saints also added a lottery ticket in Martin Emerson, who was arguably a “plus” outside cornerback at his peak for the Cleveland Browns before a torn Achilles ended his contract season before it started. At safety, the Saints have options; veterans Justin Reid and Quincy Riley are back, and I thought that both Jonas Sanker (2025 3rd rounder) and Jordan Howden (2023 5th rounder) both added something to this defense last season. Sanker stood out more on the early film, while I thought Howden showed good instincts and physicality when tasked with playing down in the box, which is a nice changeup for sub packages. Throw in 5th-round pick Lorenzo Styles Jr., and there’s a lot of configurations this defense could take on in the coming season.
My optimism for this group would certainly take a hit without the version of Chase Young I’m anticipating, but that’s true of any defense anchored by a plus/elite lineman. If Young continues to make field-tilting plays - and I’m more excited to watch him in 2026 than in any season in recent memory - this should be a really tough unit.
Final Takeaways
We’ll talk divisions and actual projections later in the process, but it doesn’t surprise me to see the Saints second in NFC South odds at +265; the Bucs seem to be working on a lot of built-up equity as the leaders at +165, and Carolina is close behind New Orleans at +300.
It will likely be competitive, but the Saints might have the best upside given the overall roster talent and the quarterback’s potential. That could get derailed, but especially given their expectations last season, I find it hard not to be impressed by the way Kellen Moore had his team playing, and with a clear slate of roster building ahead, New Orleans could certainly be going places, both in 2026 and the years beyond.