The ESSENTIAL Football Show 
Top 51 Cap Space (per Spotrac): 2026: $37.5 million | 2027: $13.9 million | 2028: $144.7 million
Draft Picks: 2027: 1-4, 6, CHI 5, HOU 6, MIN 6, NO 6 | 2028: 2-6
Football Decision Makers: GM Eliot Wolf | HC Mike Vrabel | OC Josh McDaniels | DC Zak Kuhr | ST Jeremy Springer
State of the Team
It was one heck of a run for New England in 2025. Drake Maye had flashed talent as a rookie, but the Patriots had also picked 4th overall, so it was fair to expect something of a ramp-up period. Instead, in Year One under head coach Mike Vrabel, Maye finished second in MVP voting to Matthew Stafford, the team went 14-3, and while they weren’t the prettiest games, they wound up beating the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos to reach the Super Bowl.
There was some element of luck involved in that playoff run - I don’t think that the Patriots were in a meaningfully different tier than the three teams they beat in the AFC Playoffs, or the Bills or Jaguars, for that matter - but the fact that New England was in that group of AFC contenders is still a massive positive given the preseason expectations that had them as a borderline playoff team (at best).
New England faces a similarly difficult field in 2026 - in addition to the teams listed, a healthy Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes should put the Ravens, Bengals, and Chiefs back in the thick of things - but the QB is legit, the defense has stars, and there’s plenty of reason to believe this Patriots team will be even better than the last one.
Offense
Drake Maye is a beast.
I’ll start there, because I think a lot has gotten lost in the debates over what New England’s season was last year, and what it says about their overall roster talent.
I’m not suggesting that Maye had a perfect playoff run, but I’d compare his performances a lot more to Justin Herbert’s struggles in the playoffs, in that the quarterback did not execute some high-difficulty passes that he is capable of making, but that he was doing that while the offense around him got their ass kicked. And even in those uninspiring performances, there are a handful of plays you can pick out where the talent jumps off the screen; in Maye’s case, his ability to pin the ball on receivers downfield stands out as exceptional, and tends to pop up at least a couple of times, even on his bad days.
Maye should have more help in 2026. A.J. Brown had a frustrating end to his run in Philadelphia, but a fresh start in New England could help him get back to his elite status. Across from him, Romeo Doubs is a quality route-runner who can work as the on-ball “X” receiver, and by all reports, these additions have lit a fire under Kayshon Boutte, who is evidently having a terrific camp. Throw in the size of Mack Hollins, the speed of Kyle Williams, and the slot ability of DeMario Douglas, and you have a fairly deep, well-rounded receiver room.
There is similar depth at the running back and tight end positions; TreVeyon Henderson showed he can be a home run threat down the stretch, but lost in his hype was the fact that Rhamondre Stevenson had his best year as a pro, providing both physicality and explosiveness on the ground. At tight end, veteran Hunter Henry is a well-rounded player who recently inked a contract extension, and 3rd-round rookie Eli Raridon is expected to play a role after veteran Julian Hill was lost for the season during spring practice.
The offense’s biggest questions are likely along the offensive line, but there’s a clear upside case here. Jared Wilson was adequate at left guard this year, but may be more of a solid or plus player moving in to his natural position of center, and his replacement, Alijah Vera-Tucker, is a significant upgrade on Wilson at left guard (assuming Vera-Tucker is healthy). The right side features veterans Mike Onwenu and Morgan Moses, and while Moses is getting long in the tooth, that massive pair should continue to provide steady play.
That leaves the left tackle spot, where Will Campbell will look to start reversing a miserable playoff run with a Super Bowl rematch against the Seattle Seahawks. It’s a brutal matchup for Campbell, who struggles with longer, bigger opponents, and gets to open with a matchup that will likely see All-Pro defensive tackle Leonard Williams lined up over Campbell multiple times. It’s a tough situation, because Campbell has very good feet, particularly in the run game, but he simply isn’t long or big enough to hold up on the edge; his playoff film reminded me a lot of Joe Thuney’s tape playing left tackle for Kansas City in the playoffs two years ago, and as admirable as that effort was, it was pretty clear why Thuney had played guard his entire career. If Campbell did kick inside, I think he would compare favorably to Tennessee’s Peter Skoronski, another highly drafted lineman who didn’t quite have the size to play outside, but who just signed a massive payday to anchor Tennessee’s line moving forward.
If that happens, the Patriots have contingency plans; they selected offensive tackle Caleb Lomu with their 1st-round pick, and Vera-Tucker and Onwenu have both played tackle at a reasonable level during their careers. Given the options they have, this is hardly a five-alarm fire, but it is a position group likely to get a lot of focus in early-season analysis.
Defense
New England’s defense took a good amount of criticism throughout last season, but when this group is healthy, they are a tough unit to play against, which they showed throughout the playoffs.
The Patriots have two key duos leading the way: the pairing of defensive tackles Christian Barmore and Milton Williams up front, and the outside corner tandem of Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis in the back end. Barmore and Williams are two big bodies who can generate pressure on the interior, while Gonzalez puts it all over the top as an elite cover corner; it’s a big ask for Davis to be the number one at this stage in his career, but when he is the second corner across from Gonzalez, it allows the Patriots to let their outside corners handle business while the middle of the defense focuses on handling the rest.
There’s a lot of quality players up the middle - slot cornerback Marcus Jones is a borderline “plus” cover player, Craig Woodson is coming off a strong rookie year at safety, and Robert Spillane is a steady, set-the-tone player at off-ball-linebacker - but this defense will ultimately rise and fall with its stars. The edge rush situation is a bit dicey; Dre’Mont Jones is coming off a quality season in Baltimore and is a likely upgrade on what they had last year, but the depth is iffy, and if all things were equal, you’d assume the Pats would have preferred to keep K’Lavon Chaisson after his breakout season… but the Pats had thrown a significant amount of money at Harold Landry, who previously played for Vrabel in Tennessee, and turned out to be the big disappointment in last year’s class; hopefully some combination of Landry, Elijah Ponder, and second-round rookie Gabe Jacas can combine to provide a presence opposite Jones.
Final Takeaways
The Patriots jumped their timeline up a bit by trading a 2028 1st-rounder for A.J. Brown, but that seems like exactly the type of move to make for a team in a “Super Bowl contender with rookie QB contract” to make.
New England didn’t get out over their skis on draft capital, and they’ve kept it to one move for a veteran, unlike the Washington Commanders, who swung separate deals for several veterans and gutted their draft classes; beyond that, the Patriots did a brilliant job wielding their free agent dollars to bring in players like Milton Williams and Romeo Doubs, both of whom attracted significant competition.
I think those moves are a good sign for this front office moving forward; being willing to go “over the top” on free-agent deals in an environment where (1) the cap is rising FAST and (2) you get to add talent without giving up lottery tickets strikes me as an astute move. We could point to the Carlton Davis contract as a perfect example; the Pats weren’t in position to make this type of move, but the Commanders traded for Saints corner Marshon Lattimore as they pushed for the playoffs in Jayden Daniels’ rookie season, and not only did the move not work out, it cost the Commanders mid-round draft capital, whereas New England was able to wait a few months, sign a different veteran corner in Davis, and still have the draft picks left over to find a player like Craig Woodson in the fourth round; Woodson might not be an All-Pro, but the ability to pencil him in for three more years as a starter on a 4th-round deal is exactly the type of move that will allow the Patriots to continue fielding a contender once Maye moves on from his rookie deal.
It’s a big ask to go to back-to-back Super Bowls, and from a pure talent standpoint, I think the Patriots are behind the Rams and Seahawks, but they also appear set to compete for the foreseeable future, and that’s an enviable position for an organization to be in.