The ESSENTIAL Football Show 
Top 51 Cap Space (per Spotrac): 2026: $13.7 million | 2027: $40.1 million | 2028: $179.9 million
Draft Picks: 2027: 1-3, 5, PHI 3, CAR 5, NYJ 6, PHI 7 | 2028: 1-7
Football Decision Makers: GM Nolan Teasley | HC Kevin O’Connell | OC Wes Phillips | DC Brian Flores | ST Matt Daniels
State of the Team
It will go down as a poorly remembered footnote of Sam Darnold’s Super Bowl run with Seattle, but the firing of general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah on the heels of the Seahawks lifting the Lombardi was one unlike any I can remember.
Conventional wisdom suggests that Kevin O’Connell was sold on J.J. McCarthy as a potential franchise quarterback, but the situation was much muddier than that; the organization moved off the Kirk Cousins model, and Adofo-Mensah made the early move to acquire the 17th overall pick, which became edge rusher Dallas Turner after Minnesota was unable to replicate the strategy Buffalo used to move all the way up to the 7th overall pick in the Josh Allen draft. Despite Minnesota’s reported interest, the top three teams would not move off Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye, and after Minnesota drew unexpected competition from the team that had signed Cousins when the Atlanta Falcons drafted Michael Penix, Minnesota was left with a choice between McCarthy and Bo Nix. It would have been odd if O’Connell actively disliked McCarthy as a prospect, but there’s a long ways between grading a player a blue chip prospect and needing to select one of two quarterbacks who are available.
Two years later, all signs are that the Vikings made the wrong choice there, and after experiencing enough success with Darnold for the team to carry him off the field at one point, Adofo-Mensah decided to stick to the rookie model build, letting Darnold walk and signing center Ryan Kelly, right guard Will Fries, and defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave.
A year later, Fries is the only one of those players left on the roster. Despite all of that, new general manager Nolan Teasley had one more potential get out of jail free card at quarterback signed to the roster before Teasley even took the job; after the Cardinals cut him, former 1st overall pick Kyler Murray signed with Minnesota for $1.3 million.
Murray’s style draws mixed opinions, but there’s no denying that he has gotten far better results in his career than McCarthy. The infrastructure crumbled around Murray in Arizona, but between O’Connell’s coaching and some upgraded talent, Murray has a chance to get his career back on track, and the Vikings could be back in the thick of the NFC North.
Offense
Whether it was last offseason, or the one before, we often speak of how “loaded” Minnesota is on offense.
That has certainly been true at the skill positions; last year’s statistics aside, Justin Jefferson is one of the NFL’s elite receivers, and Jordan Addison brings a combination of home-run ability and down-to-down route running that make him a “plus” in my book. T.J. Hockenson may not be as dynamic as he once was, but he is a solid two-way tight end, and Josh Oliver is a standout blocker at the position in a league that is putting more and more emphasis on 12 personnel. Throw in Jauan Jennings, one of the NFL’s more physical slot receivers, and running back Jordan Mason’s ability to run through contact, and the Vikings have both star-power and depth, especially if Aaron Jones can defy Father Time and continue to complement Mason with his shiftier running style.
The question has been on the offensive line, where the Vikings added left guard Donovan Jackson in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft in addition to adding Kelly and Fries. Two of those moves worked out all right; Jackson had some up and down games throughout his rookie season, but he could smooth out in his second season, and Fries is a clear “solid” grade bordering on plus, which is also true of veteran right tackle Brian O’Neill.
Unfortunately, things came apart elsewhere, with Kelly retiring and leaving an open spot at center while left tackle Christian Darrisaw attempts to return from a knee injury that plagued him throughout last season. It’s an extremely concerning profile; Darrisaw’s last full game was Week 11, then he played parts of Week 12 and Week 14 before shutting it down. That was after a slow ramp up to playing three straight games Weeks 9-11; in all, Darrisaw only played five full games during the season.
You hope that Darrisaw returns to form, but anyone who followed the David Bakhtiari saga in Green Bay knows that it’s not a good sign when a player returns to the field and is unable to stay in the lineup. The Vikings added Ryan Van Demark from the Bills and drafted Caleb Tiernan in the 3rd round, but the best-case scenario for either player is a long ways off the borderline elite play Darrisaw was providing before his injury. With “mediocre” arguably the best case for journeyman Blake Brandell and Michael Jurgens at center, there’s a lot of ways this could break for Minnesota as a group based on Darrisaw’s health.
Even in the worst case, the group should be good enough for the offense to function; in terms of who will operate it, Murray seems like a foregone conclusion. McCarthy isn’t a lost cause - the numbers he put up in the Dallas game alone make that clear - but even against the Cowboys, there was room for improvement, and a certain clunkiness to certain throws McCarthy made. Murray - lest we forget - is a DYNAMIC runner who has all sorts of arm talent, and while he needs to better translate those traits to the timing and rhythm of the offense at times, the times when Kyler Murray can’t move an offense have been far and in between. Murray, a transcendentally talented athlete who was the 9th overall pick in the MLB draft before winning the Heisman Trophy and going 1st overall, was humbled during his time in Arizona; I hope he wis this job, because I’m excited to see what Murray could look like in as good of an offense infrastructure as he’s been in, now that he’s a bit longer in the tooth and might appreciate the need to maximize the schematic advantages O’Connell can create.
Defense
In my latest run-through of the Minnesota defense, the description I came up with is “full-court press”; it isn’t that the Vikings are always blitzing, but coordinator Brian Flores’s affinity for lining his defenders up in “show” blitz fronts - putting the majority of the defenders right up on the line of scrimmage - on 1st and 2nd downs, creates the feeling of a full-court press basketball defense. Even if there are answers behind the press, it consistently forces the quarterback to make a quick decision, which adds an element of stress to the offensive-defensive dynamic.
It’s fascinating, because if you look at the talent, and didn’t know about the strategy, the results would be stunning; retired safety Harrison Smith would have carried a “plus” grade over the past two seasons, but Allen and Hargrave were more solid than spectacular at defensive tackle last year, and their “plus” edge defender, Jonathan Greenard, missed time with injury.
The Vikings are losing out by having to trade Greenard - cap issues aside, he’s a very good player - but if I had to put money on it, I’d guess Flores figures it out with this group. Byron Murphy Jr. is a “plus” corner who will challenge routes inside and out, and Isaiah Rodgers will compete on the opposite side. Their three safety approach means that Joshua Mettellus, Theo Jackson, and Jay Ward should all see a lot of snaps, and while it’s hard to see any of the three matching what Harrison Smith brought - Smith’s instincts have always been on an “elite” level and he was one of the best players of the past decade - I could certainly see the collective group stepping up in his absence. It will also go a long way if Dallas Turner can turn his traits, highlighted by an explosive first step, into more production; Andrew Van Ginkel is a standout in this defense across from him, and the off-ball duo of Blake Cashman and Eric Wilson are a great fit for what Flores wants to do, but they still need to get off blocks in the front.
The defensive line is another X-Factor, with 1st-round pick Caleb Banks and 3rd-round pick Domnique Orange replacing the departed Hargrave and Allen. There’s certainly upside potential there - as great as Hargrave and Allen were at their peaks, neither player was anywhere near that standard for Minnesota last year - but there’s also downside; if it turns out Banks and/or Orange isn’t going to stick in the NFL, this defense is left with the adequate/solid Jalen Redmond and some rotational bodies in Levi Rodriguez and Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins that would truly put Flores to the test.
Final Takeaways
Minnesota’s ceiling is probably similar to the rest of the NFC North, but they are playing catch-up; whether it’s the quarterback, or some of the moving pieces on defense, it feels like the Vikings have the lowest floor. Short of a quarterback injury, it’s hard to see their division rivals struggling the way Minnesota struggled last year.
Then again, the Vikings 9-8 despite all that, even picking up a victory over Detroit with Max Brosmer at quarterback on a day where Jordan Addison’s jet sweep was their only explosive offensive play. You have to admire the coaching staff that put together that “three-phase” plan and the team that executed it; there’s a reason that the Vikings went 14-3 with Sam Darnold, and a rebound season, whether it’s behind a resurgent Kyler Murray or a more refined version of J.J. McCarthy, is certainly not out of the question.