The ESSENTIAL Football Show 
Top 51 Cap Space (per Spotrac): 2026: $32.0 million | 2027: $64.8 million | 2028: $229.6 million
Draft Picks: 2027: 2-7 | 2028: 1-7
Football Decision Makers: GM Chris Ballard | HC Shane Steichen | OC Jim Bob Cooter | DC Lou Anarumo | ST Brian Mason
State of the Team
There’s only so much time in life to ponder roads untaken, but as I assess the state of the Indianapolis Colts, I can’t help but wonder what would have happened to this organization had they not made the trade for cornerback Sauce Gardner at midseason. After a half-season where everything had seemed to break their way, the back half of 2025 tilted the other direction, with every break (including, to use some horrible wordplay, the quarterback’s broken leg) going against them.
In a vacuum, there was plenty of reason to blow this thing up, but because they had traded their next two 1st-round picks to the Jets for Gardner, the Colts found themselves between a rock and a hard place; either they reset without the needed picks, or they run it back with Daniel Jones, who wound up tearing his Achilles while playing on the aforementioned broken leg.
The Irsay family - led by Carlie Irsay-Gordon - opted to go with the second route, keeping GM Chris Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen in place while retaining Jones.
Maybe there’s genuine hope that they can recapture last year’s fast start, or maybe it seemed best to just ride it out, understanding how difficult it is to pivot with a (relatively) expensive roster and no draft pick to target an elite quarterback prospect.
Either way, this situation reminds me of Miami in 2025; many details differ, but ultimately, I think you have a quality, offensive-minded head coach who has been hamstrung by the GM’s inability to bring in enough talent, a problem that persisted into this offseason, which saw them jettison a quality player in veteran receiver Michael Pittman and requires tremendous faith in Daniel Jones, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, and cornerback Charvarius Ward all returning to peak form after serious injury situations.
Color me jaded, but I’m more inclined to think that everyone gets fired before Halloween.
Offense
Even if Daniel Jones were healthy, this offense would be hard-pressed to stave off regression.
Let’s start with the positives - and there are a lot of them - before we get into the negatives.
Indianapolis is good to go on the offensive line, and they have the potential to be even better if Jalen Travis, who is set to take over at right tackle, proves himself to be a “solid” starter. I have more of a wait-and-see approach on Travis at this point - he’s a guy to review in more depth this summer - but regardless, the rest of the line is sound, with Bernhard Raimann possessing easy athleticism on the left side, Quenton Nelson continuing to wipe out defenders in the run game, and the duo of Tanor Bortolini and Matt Gonclaves coming off solid seasons in their first campaigns as starters. Extend that line to tight end, where Tyler Warren is an ascending star and Mo Alie-Cox remains a capable blocker with the hands to make a play, and Drew Ogletree and Will Mallory can both factor in, and the Colts are working with a very sound foundation.
At running back, Jonathan Taylor is coming off an elite season that saw him lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns. Any season like that is going to have some exceptional moments, but Taylor’s touchdown run against the Atlanta Falcons, where he turned a play that looked dead at the line into a game-changing explosive score, was the crown jewel in my opinion, a rep that showed off Taylor’s big-time athleticism and an unwillingness to quit on the play.
It doesn’t stop there; the Colts have two quality players at wide receiver. The bidding war and free-agency interest may have inflated the perception of Alec Pierce; I think Pierce is a heck of a player and he has improved dramatically during his four years in the NFL, but he is coming off 47 receptions for 1,003 yards and 6 touchdowns, which, despite the impressive yards-per-reception number, is not exactly elite production. Nevertheless, Pierce should get more opportunities with Pittman out of town and could certainly have a “purple” grade here; either way, he pairs well with Josh Downs, the shifty, slot-primary receiver who could also take on a bigger role given the lack of depth behind this duo.
And that’s where we get to the concerns; this team’s depth is concerning. The Colts drafted the diminutive Deion Burks in the 7th round, but the 5’9 speedster is pigeonholed into a very specific role given his traits. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine can get in the mix as a solid player with some size, but he followed up his bizarre 9 TDs on 32 catches 2024 season with 0 TDs on 11 catches for the Dolphins in 2025, which makes it hard to see him filling in if Pierce or Downs is injured. The running back room is in a similar situation with DJ Giddens and rookie Seth McGowan behind Taylor, while the offensive line room has little quality depth outside of the potential from 4th-round guard Jalen Farmer.
That would all still add up to something if Daniel Jones were a surefire “green” player next year, but while I have that tag on him, there’s a very real chance Jones isn’t playing at the same level on his return. Jones relied plenty on his legs last season, which has been a theme in his career, and it’s unlikely he has the same juice coming off a torn Achilles. Perhaps Anthony Richardson takes a step forward and gets them through the early part of the season… but I’m not betting on any of that.
Defense
Like the offense, the Indianapolis defense comes with injury caveats.
I liked the vision for what the Colts could be on defense with Sauce Gardner - who still possesses ridiculous traits and profiles as an elite player despite all the dropped interceptions - playing opposite Charvarius Ward and DeForest Buckner leading the way up front.
We could still see that happen, but after everything Ward went through entering his age-30 season and the neck injury that sidelined Buckner at the end of the year, I’m far less optimistic we ever see that come to fruition. Sauce is in his prime, and edge rusher Laiatu Latu could have more in store in his third season, but outside of that, this defense is heavily dependent on cornerback Justin Walley recovering from the knee injury that wiped out his rookie season and the contributions of rookie linebacker CJ Allen, who takes on the unenviable task of being the steadying force in a relatively unaccomplished linebacker room.
Unfortunately, even if Walley and Allen were to play to their top-end outcomes - and let’s go for broke and say they both turn into plus players - there would still be holes up the middle of the defense. Safety Cam Bynum is a steadying force in the back end, but he’s not a field-tilter, and he’s going to be breaking in a new running mate from an unheralded list of candidates. At linebacker, Akeem Davis-Gaither is slated to start, and while I liked Davis-Gaither in some sub package looks early in his career due to his range, I’m less excited about him lining up as a three-down starter.
There are some good things here. Grover Stewart is no longer an elite run defender / plus overall player, but he’s still solid, and the Colts have an interesting secondary group on the line with veterans Arden Key and Michael Clemons offering big bodies on the edge and Colby Wooden and Adetomiwa Adebawore bringing some wiggle on the inside. JT Tuimoloau is slated to start in his second season, and while the former second-rounder made limited contributions as a rookie, he could up the ante this season. (I’ll also throw out the name Cam Taylor-Britt, who had some very positive moments over his rookie contract in Cincinnati before ultimately losing his starting job; perhaps he rebounds after being re-united with defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo… or perhaps he quickly drops back down to a “mediocre” grade.
All that said, I think this defense could wind up being a bottom-10 unit. I like the upside IF Buckner and Ward are healthy, if Latu takes a step forward, and if Walley and Allen are both positive contributors… but that is a LOT of ifs and I question what the Colts would put out there if a couple of those go wrong.
Lou Anarumo is a solid defensive coordinator, but he’s not a magician, and it would be quite the feat to pull a rabbit out of this hat, so to speak.
Final Takeaways
As I wrap this article, I legitimately wonder what the plan is for Indy.
I assume they hope this all works out, given how bleak the alternative is for the next two seasons if this collapses, but as we saw last season, hope is not much of a strategy; heck, actively making moves didn’t turn out to be much of a strategy, so I don’t see why hope would be.
Perhaps it’s a “Major League” situation where ownership figures they’ll let this situation burn out of its own accord, or maybe they really do believe in what Daniel Jones will look like coming off this torn Achilles.
Either way, I would be surprised to see the Colts replicate the first half of last season, or even come close to it. It’s a bummer, as I truly enjoy watching Shane Steichen’s offenses and think there are a lot of good pieces in this building… but none of that makes up for the fact that the quarterback is coming off a torn Achilles and the defense is lacking in talent.