The ESSENTIAL Football Show 
Top 51 Cap Space (per Spotrac): 2026: $23.7 million | 2027: $17.1 million | 2028: $105.3 million
Draft Picks: 2027: GB 2-5, 7, DAL 4, PHI 6 | 2028: 1-7
Football Decision Makers: GM Brian Gutekunst | HC Matt LaFleur | OC Adam Stenavich | DC Jonathan Gannon | ST Cam Achord
State of the Team
In assessing the near term future in Green Bay, particularly from the perspective of their late-season woes, my overwhelming thought is that watching Jordan Love play quarterback is awesome.
That’s not to say it isn’t maddening at times - their collapses against Chicago were full-team efforts and Love missed his share of opportunities - but setting aside a handful of results from a season that saw the team’s stars decimated by injury, it’s hard not to feel optimistic about what Green Bay will do over the next three to five years with Love at the helm. The runs of mistakes have him at a plus grade in my book, but he is teetering on an elite grade; Love possesses elite arm talent that allows him to attack any area of the field, and his ability to execute Matt LaFleur’s offense and anticipate certain concepts is already at a very high level. Given the growth he’s shown since his first NFL action, there’s every reason to expect Love to add even more refinement as he moves through his athletic peak, and it would surprise me if he doesn’t wind up in an MVP discussion in the next few years.
Unfortunately, whether this year is “the” year is up in the air. I’m all for adding a field-tilting talent like Micah Parsons, but when two elite players on your roster (tight end Tucker Kraft being the second) go down to season-ending knee injuries, and you traded away your next two first-rounders to acquire the pass rusher… well, it’s bound to be something of a setback. It’s not worth dwelling on - that’s the NFL, after all - but the reality is that losing a potential First Team All-Pro player is going to dramatically change the feel of any unit.
The Packers made more subtractions than additions this offseason, and they’ll be changing things up on the coaching staff, with Jonathan Gannon taking over the defense and Cam Achord taking charge of special teams. For it to all come together, they (1) need some bets on development from highly drafted players to pay off and (2) need to get their elite duo back at something close to their previous form at some point during the year.
Offense
Green Bay has a few waves of obstacles to hitting their potential on offense; we’ll take this accordingly.
The first question is on the availability front; all reports are that right tackle Zach Tom and tight end Tucker Kraft are on track in their recoveries from their respective knee injuries. While his relative lack of size prevents him from being an elite tackle, Tom possesses outstanding movement skills and has consistently graded as both a “plus” tackle and as the best player on Green Bay’s line. For his part, Kraft had rounded into arguably the NFL’s premier tight end, with the ability to handle defensive ends at the point of attack in the run game (as well as being one of the league’s better “escort’ blockers on wide pulls), to attack downfield as a receiver, and to consistently turn dump-off passes into first downs, or even explosives, as one of the more physical run-after-catch players in the league. At running back, Josh Jacobs remains in an iffy position following an offseason arrest that did not result in charges; assuming he’s back, and at the standard he finished last season, Jacobs gives the Packers an option with outstanding vision between the tackles and pass-catching chops. Jacobs probably isn’t the same threat to hit a home run as he was in his younger years, and mileage is a risk at this point in his career, but with his between-the-tackles vision and run style, Jacobs has the type of game that could age well even with some physical decline.
Put together, that’s one “blue” player and two “purples”, which makes for a fairly important trio of players. I have Christian Watson pushed into the purple category for the first time in his career - he has always been overwhelmingly explosive, and his game is rounding out to catch up to his physical traits - but he is the only other player in the top two categories besides Love. A full season out of Jayden Reed would go a long way, and Matthew Golden has enough in the toolbox to take a step up with a strong offseason, but barring a monumental leap form Savion Williams in the polish department, things get thin for Green Bay’s pass catchers after that; I like Luke Musgrave as a capable receiver, but he’s unlikely to move the needle, and there isn’t anyone in the running back room behind Jacobs who has shown they can get anything close to consistent results at the NFL level.
The one advantage of Tom’s injury is that it got the shift to the next iteration of the offensive line jump-started, and Jordan Morgan certainly needed the work; after an alarming game at right tackle against the Chicago Bears (and Montez Sweat) in Week 16, Morgan rebounded to play a perfectly adequate game against those same Bears in the Wild Card Round. He didn’t look likely to push for All Pro honors, but the full-time move to left tackle might help Morgan by focusing his preparation, and it seems reasonable to expect him to play at least as well as Rasheed Walker did during his tenure. Right guard Anthony Belton, a former second-round pick, could similarly show improvement; based on last season’s film, I’d stack Belton in the mediocre grades (he remind me a lot of Seattle’s Anthony Bradford), but Belton only moved to guard last season, and could benefit from a full offseason focused on his new spot.
Between them, left guard Aaron Banks has drawn a lot of mixed opinion given his contract, but I think he’s a solid player who is making a fairly reasonable number given the market, a lot like Sean Rhyan, who signed a three-year deal for $12 million per season, which is on the lower side of the center market. The group should be able to function in the context of LaFleur’s offense, and if Tom can’t go, swing tackle Darian Kinnard brings some experience.
If every one of the dice rolls on availability and development comes up positive, the Packers have the pieces to be one of the league’s better offenses. Things normally don’t turn out that way, so if we split the difference and say two or three of the bets go their way, Love should be able to get this group somewhere in the 8-12 range.
Defense
The state of the defense is notably more alarming, and while we know the answers Jeff Hafley used to hide a dearth of playmaking ability at outside cornerback, we’ve yet to see how Jonathan Gannon will handle this particular situation.
Fortunately, Gannon ran a lot of three-safety looks during his time as head coach in Arizona, so he should have plenty of ideas on how to best deploy Xavier McKinney, Javon Bullard, and Evan Williams, who are the clear strength of this group (at least until Parsons returns). McKinney’s instincts are ridiculous; for all the plays he made last season, he had several missed opportunities on interceptions that could have resulted in an even better season, and breaks up an incredible number of plays. The duo of Williams and Bullard aren’t quite on that level, but both play with good game sense and are sound tacklers, which will give Gannon a lot of flexibility in his deployment.
As alluded to, the same can’t be said of the outside cornerback room; Keisean Nixon’s development from return specialist to slot to outside corner has been impressive, but his lack of plays on the ball make him more of an “adequate” player to me. Nixon isn’t getting torched out there, but he doesn’t get many breakups, while across from him, Carrington Valentine, who struggled both as a tackler and did not make many plays in coverage, will compete with veteran Benjamin St. Juste, a long (6’3) corner who has typically been another guy who keeps plays in front of him, but isn’t consistently impacting routes. The X-Factor is second rounder Brandon Cisse; if Green Bay hit on a gem there, and bumped the rest of the room down a spot, then suddenly this looks like a pretty good secondary.
Off-ball linebacker could also work out well; Edgerrin Cooper has established himself as a playmaker at the position, with some of the best closing speed in the NFL and a knack for making plays. He will pair with Zaire Franklin, a steady veteran acquired from Indianapolis, whose read-it-out style should complement Cooper’s range.
All in all, the defense should be pretty good up the spine, between the off-ball backers and safeties, but there are huge questions about the front with their two best players, Parsons and defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt, both recovering from season-ending injuries. The Packers added defensive tackle Chris McClellan in the third round and edge defender Dani Dennis-Sutton in the fourth, but counting on mid-round picks to supplement decidedly unimpressive veteran rooms is a dicey play; former first-rounder Lukas Van Ness remains very much an idea, both in production and availability, and veteran free-agent addition Javon Hargrave will add to the rotation at defensive tackle, but is not close to the standard he set as a “blue” player in his Pittsburgh and Philadelphia days. Karl Brooks brings something as a relatively undersized defensive tackle who can get some pass rush inside, but he’s a complementary piece, not a driver.
Behind those names, the Packers have a whole lot of names who have either played limited snaps to unimpressive results, or who haven’t played much at all. It would be one thing if they had the back end to play a mix of man and zone while manufacturing pressure with blitzes until Wyatt and Parsons return, but this outside corner room hasn’t shown they are well-equipped to do that, which could be problematic.
Final Takeaways
Zach Tom, Tucker Kraft, and Devonte Wyatt are all hoping to be ready for training camp or Week One, while Micah Parsons appears more likely to start on the PUP list and return in October.
Nothing is guaranteed with injuries, particularly serious lower-body injuries, but if all goes well, this Green Bay team should be back in the thick of things. Similar to the Lions, it’s hard to see the Packers favored against the Rams or Seahawks as things currently stand, but it’s a long way between now and January, and plenty will happen. The NFC North will be a heck of a proving ground, butt in the best-case scenario, Green Bay has enough talent to come out on top.