The ESSENTIAL Football Show 
Top 51 Cap Space (per Spotrac): 2026: $7.9 million | 2027: negative $24.0 million | 2028: $256.4 million
Draft Picks: 2027: DAL 2-3, 6-7, GB 1st, PIT 6th | 2028: 1-6, NO 7th
Football Decision Makers: Owners Jerry and Stephen Jones, VP of Player Personnel Will McClay | HC Brian Schottenheimer | OC Klayton Adams | DC Christian Parker | ST Nick Sorensen
State of the Team
The Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys stack up back-to-back on my list of reviews this year, and it works out, as the two teams are mirror images of one another.
If healthy (and clicking) the Bengals and Cowboys have Top 10 offenses driven by a Top 10 quarterback and an elite wide receiver duo, paired with a “mystery box” on defense.
Details differ, but the big picture is the same; with offenses this talented, both Cincinnati and Dallas could go on a Super Bowl run in 2026.
That’s where it gets difficult; with huge expectations on offense and a lot of moving parts on defense, the range of outcomes for these versions of the respective squads is anywhere from lifting up the Lombardi to cleaning out desks/lockers forever after Week 18.
Large platitudes out of the way, let’s get into the specifics on the Cowboys.
Offense
It may not work out this smoothly, but for the purposes of this analysis, we’ll assume receiver George Pickens is happy enough that the franchise tag will pay him more than he made over the four years of his rookie deal that he shows up and continues to max out his potential as a Top 10 receiver.
If it plays out that way, Dallas has a chance to be as good as anyone on offense, particularly after head coach Brian Schottenheimer and the rest of the offensive staff got to work through a season where their other elite receiver, CeeDee Lamb, missed time with injury, which provides a rolodex of “proven concept” ideas of how to best deploy this duo. With tight end Jake Ferguson to round out the group, quarterback Dak Prescott should have plenty of weapons to throw to, and while the running back position hinges on Javonte Williams repeating last year’s workhorse performance, it seems reasonable to expect that; Williams is several years removed from the major knee injury that sidetracked his career in Denver and has become a very well-rounded back.
The Cowboys bring star-power on the offensive line as well, where left guard Tyler Smith stands out as one of the best combinations on power and mobility the league has to offer, and right guard Tyler Booker is coming off a standout rookie season. Cooper Beebe has been a steady presence at center since winning the job as a rookie in 2024, and while right tackle Terence Steele’s performance has seen highs and lows throughout his career depending on his injury status, he has been on a good run of luck on that front and is an above-average player when he’s right. Dallas would get an extra bonus if left tackle Tyler Guyton is healthier/more polished in his third season; it’s possible fourth-rounder Drew Shelton proves adequate if forced into action, but the Cowboys would have some depth questions if Guyton endures another season like the last one.
All things considered, Prescott couldn’t ask for a much better situation. The Cowboys have standouts in every position room, a high-level quarterback, and an offensive braintrust that did a great job bringing it all together last year; if Dak has an MVP season in his future, 2026 appears to be the season where things would line up.
Defense
The Cowboys have a jump-start on their defensive rebuild relative to the Bengals, as they made their trade for a blue-chip defensive tackle last season, and while Dexter Lawerence’s up and down play makes him more of an unknown, Quinnen Williams has been a consistent standout for years, and he picked up where he left off after the trade from the Jets to the Cowboys.
That move happened too late in the season to reverse their fortunes, but in retrospect, it seems that the Cowboys did a terrific job taking advantage of the fire sale in New York, because players like Williams simply aren’t available all that often, particularly with the league doubling down on interior pressure and pocket pushers after Seattle’s success last year.
Behind Williams, the Cowboys are counting on a series of bets to turn up more wins than losses. Kenny Clark is in place next to Williams as another tackle with some penetrating ability, and free-agent additions Otito Ogbonnia and Jonathan Bullard should pair with 4th-round pick LT Overton to give the Cowboys some depth in their tackle rotation.
The edge group features bets on players to return from injury (Rashan Gary, acquired from the Packers via trade) or to pay off significant draft capital (2025 2nd-rounder Donovan Ezeiruaku and 2026 1st-rounder Malachi Lawrence); I’m not counting on Gary getting back to his peak, but he’s still relatively young, and Ezeiruaku put enough on tape last year to get excited about what his quickness and agility could translate into.
Dallas continued their makeover up the spine of the defense, where they traded for linebacker Dee Winters and signed safety Jalen Thompson, giving them two solid-if-not-spectacular pieces who have shown the ability to suit up for all 17. They will be joined by safety Caleb Downs, the 11th pick of this year’s NFL Draft, who will presumably line up in the slot as a “star” defender. With Malik Hooker in place as a solid starter at the other safety spot and a good veteran depth addition in P.J. Locke, the safety play should be improved, and if DeMarvion Overshown, who flashed big-time ability before a significant knee injury two seasons ago, can get back to form, this middle could turn from a “minus” to “plus” in short order. (If Overshown isn’t that guy, 3rd-round pick Jaishawn Barham could also wind up in the mix here).
The outside cornerback position is more of a sticking point; DaRon Bland is a complicated discussion, not least because of the foot injuries he has battled through, but overall, he’s at least a solid starter at one outside spot. Veteran Cobie Durant was overmatched as a full-time starter for the Rams last season, so Dallas is probably better off if 2025 3rd-rounder Shavon Revel or 2026 4th-rounder Devin Moore can beat out the free-agent addition, but if they don’t Durant is at least playable.
As a closing thought on the unit - which also has an X-Factor in first-time defensive coordinator Christian Parker, who most recently worked on Philadelphia’s staff - unlike the Bengals, who could easily bottom out on defense again, it would surprise me if the Cowboys were not at least an average defense with a healthy Quinnen Williams. There is upside for more, but at the very least, this group should be competitive; not only is there more proven depth, there is more young talent with upside, and I also have more confidence in Quinnen Williams than Dexter Lawrence to play at an elite level given the way their careers have gone to date.
Final Takeaways
Dak Prescott has a cap hit of $76 million scheduled for 2027, which is a big part of the reason the Cowboys are $24 million over the cap for next year, a rarity in today’s NFL. (And that’s without accounting for George Pickens, who is only on the books for 2026).
Fortunately, there is plenty of space opening up in 2028, and there are ways they can move money around if this version of the roster shows it is worth pushing the chips in on. Philadelphia has a habit of being a “one year on, one year off” team, particularly during Nick Sirianni’s tenure as head coach, so perhaps the Eagles are back in the mix, but with Washington’s roster among the worst in the league (outside of quarterback) and the Giants in rebuild mode, the NFC East isn’t lining up to be a juggernaut.
It’s the NFL, and things are going to go unexpectedly sideways, but the arrow seems to be pointing up for the Cowboys entering the second year of Brian Schottenheimer’s tenure. In addition to all the players they have added to the defense, Schottenheimer added a potential amplifier at coordinator in Christian Parker; Matt Eberflus’s previous head coaching experience may have been a plus during Schottenheimer’s first season, but Eberfuls’s work with the defense was not particularly inspired, and with the hire of an up-and-coming young defensive coordinator, Schottenheimer has a chance to further distinguish himself in the head coaching chair.
The past decade or so has featured a lot of competitive teams out of Dallas, but as far as their Super Bowl aspirations went, it always felt like something was missing. It has to come together on defense - the game isn’t played on paper, after all - but it’s not a stretch to imagine this Cowboys team making serious noise come January 2027.