The ESSENTIAL Football Show 
Top 51 Cap Space (per Spotrac): 2026: $7.9 million | 2027: $35.1 million | 2028: $138.2 million
Draft Picks: 2027: 1-7 | 2028: 1-7
Football Decision Makers: GM (de-facto) Duke Tobin | HC Zac Taylor | OC Dan Pitcher | DC Al Golden | ST Darrin Simmons
State of the Team
The Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys stack up back-to-back on my list of reviews this year, and it works out, as the two teams are mirror images of one another.
If healthy (and clicking) the Bengals and Cowboys have Top 10 offenses driven by a Top 10 quarterback and an elite wide receiver duo, paired with a “mystery box” on defense.
Details differ, but the big picture is the same; with offenses this talented, both Cincinnati and Dallas could go on a Super Bowl run in 2026.
That’s where it gets difficult; with huge expectations on offense and a lot of moving parts on defense, the range of outcomes for these versions of the respective squads is anywhere from lifting up the Lombardi to cleaning out desks/lockers forever after Week 18.
Large platitudes out of the way, let’s get into the specifics on the Bengals.
Offense
Joe Burrow. Ja’Marr Chase. Tee Higgins.
Let’s go ahead and assume that, if you’re reading The ESSENTIAL NFL Newsletter, you have some familiarity with that trio. It would be hard not to; in Burrow and Chase’s second NFL season, they showed they can be the driving force of a Super Bowl contender, and while Higgins isn’t pushing Chase in the discussion as the league’s best receiver, the angular “ball-getter” is a dynamic threat who would be the number one receiver on many teams in the NFL.
There’s been some hand-wringing over the years regarding the construction of this offense around these players, but so much of that is backseat driving; if we get down to it, the only real question is whether you would have drafted offensive tackle Penei Sewell over Chase back in their draft class; Higgins was already on the roster as a second-round gem who had shown outstanding chemistry with Burrow as a rookie, which made the Chase/Sewell decision an interesting choice between two ELITE prospects, but since then, there hasn’t been a real choice. We can talk all we want about the decision to pay Tee Higgins, but, setting the Trey Hendrickson debacle aside, it’s not as if the Bengals could have traded Higgins for an offensive tackle of similar value at the time of the contract negotiations, and as hard as it is to find talent to pay in today’s NFL, I’m not sure why Cincinnati would have let Higgins walk.
That’s a good thing in my book, because I’m counting on this group balling out in 2026; aside from the perimeter playmakers, Cincinnati has a terrific, well-rounded running back in Chase Brown, a quality pass-catching “tight end” in oversized receiver Mike Gesicki, a more traditional tight end in Drew Sample, and an extra receiving option in Andrei Iosivas.
The offensive line lacks that type of star power - right tackle Amarius Mims possesses elite traits and could continue to progress in Year Three - but the rest of the group is more average. Left tackle Orlando Brown recently negotiated an extension at roughly $16 million per year, less than Dan Moore’s free agent deal in Tennessee, which seems to reflect a mutual understanding that Brown is an adequate player, but far from the top of the league. The same is true on the interior; Dalton Risner, who drew scant interest as a free agent after his rookie deal in Denver, but has gone on to start a LOT of games for Minnesota and Cincinnati in the years since, is penciled in as the starting right guard next to veteran center Ted Karras and Dylan Fairchild, a third-rounder entering his second season with the Bengals. That interior group should be adequate, but I’d say the chances of them dropping off are higher than the chances of them excelling; Fairchild certainly could improve, but he stuck me as more solid than standout as a rookie, and we’ve seen recent Bengals draft picks (Cordell Volson) slide from early starter to unwanted over the course of his rookie deal.
Head coach Zac Taylor ties it all together as an offensively-minded head coach, and while there are certainly those who would like to see the Bengals work from under center more often with Burrow, this group can score with anyone when clicking, so it seems like there’s some aspect of the system that’s working; it will be interesting to see how they adapt their offense to face the challenges of the 2026 season.
Defense
The defense is where things get dicey; the Bengals weren’t quiet in player acquisition this offseason, but the question of how it all comes together still remains.
Let’s start with the secondary, which strikes me as the best group on this unit; that opinion really rests on seeing cornerback DJ Turner as a quality cover player and free-agent addition Bryan Cook as a steadying force at safety, but there are a lot of potential moving parts aside from that pair. There are possibilities - Dax Hill and Jordan Battle could improve, third-round pick Tacario Davis could factor in, and Kyle Dugger, the less flashy of their two additions at safety, could find a role - but they will need more players than Turner and Cook to step up.
Things get more concerning from there. Demetrius Knight and Barrett Carter are heading into their second year at linebacker, and while stranger things have happened, it’s difficult to see either one of those players making an impact after their dismal rookie season. Neither Knight nor Carter is an overwhelming athlete, and more problematically, their play recognition ability was absolutely dreadful last season. It’s not that these things can’t be improved, but both Knight and Carter have a long way to go, and it’s not as if there is All-Pro potential waiting if it “clicks” for either one of them.
That puts a lot of pressure on the defensive line gambles this offseason, and specifically, what the Giants are going to get out of Dexter Lawrence after trading the 10th overall pick for the massive nose tackle.
If the Bengals get the version of “Sexy Dexy” that we saw in the 2023 and 2024 NFL seasons, this trade will work out for Cincinnati. At his best, Lawrence is one of the most physically overwhelming players I have ever seen on NFL film; his ability to “fork-lift” interior offensive linemen and take them for a ride to the quarterback is unreal.
The problem is that the Giants didn’t get that level of performance in 2025; it was much more of a reversion to the early years in Lawrence’s career, when he was a solid player, but did not consistently pop off the screen the way he did in his prime.
Depending on which version Cincinnati gets, this could all come together (or fall apart) spectacularly. Three years ago, the pairing of Lawrence with defensive tackle Jonathan Allen would have been potentially elite, but Allen has not brought the same impact in recent years. Free-agent Boye Mafe and second-rounder Cashius Howell join edge rushers Myles Murphy, who showed improvement in his third season, and Shemar Stewart, who did very little as a rookie 1st-round pick last season. If they get the best out of Mafe and Murphy and some juice from Howell and Stewart, this could make for a solid rotation, but it could also devolve to a situation where Mafe is a modest contributor, Murphy slips back to his non-impactful level, Howell doesn’t hit, and Stewart never finds his way.
Ultimately, I think an outsized amount of this sits on Lawrence’s shoulders, which makes sense given the trade they made to acquire him.
Final Takeaways
The Bengals signed Dexter Lawrence to a one-year extension after the trade, which technically puts him under contract for three seasons, but as the Bengals are wont to do, they did the deal without a signing bonus, so there would be no dead cap money if they cut him.
Reading the tea leaves - and more specifically, looking at Cincinnati’s three-year cap outlook - my bet is that the current version of the roster has a maximum of two more years, and that if 2026 is a flop, the next lever to pull would be a revamped coaching staff in 2027.
Of course, success would change that trajectory, and this Bengals team has a lot of upside. I don’t like their odds as much as some other teams - there’s so much that needs to come together on defense, and even in the best case, it’s hard to imagine them getting even below-average linebacker play with their current options - but the NFL is a crazy league, and I’m open to the possibility that we see a reboot of “Sexy Dexy” as some of his running mates outperform expectations.
The AFC is a deep conference, and the Bengals should face tough competition from the Ravens in the North, but they also get to play an Aaron Rodgers-led Steelers team and whoever the Browns have at quarterback for four of their games, which isn’t the worst place to start. Cincinnati’s Week One tape will be near the top of my list; with so many unknowns, but so much upside, I’m amped to see this squad in 2026.