The ESSENTIAL Football Show 
Top 51 Cap Space (per Spotrac): 2026: $9.0 million | 2027: $5.7 million | 2028: $269.3 million
Draft Picks: 2027: 1-4, 6-7 | 2028: 1-7
Football Decision Makers: GM Ryan Poles | HC Ben Johnson | OC Press Taylor | DC Dennis Allen | ST Richard Hightower
State of the Team
Throwing out a color grade on Caleb Williams is a difficult exercise, because the contrasts are still so great down-to-down, but among quarterbacks I have a “solid” grade on, Williams is the one who could easily jump ahead to the “elite” tag if he came out and turned in a consistent performance from wire-to-wire.
As it stands, the spectacular from Williams is incredible; few quarterbacks in the NFL throw it with as clean a stoke as Williams, and he generates a ton of velocity with that easy release. When it’s lined up, it looks as good as anyone.
The issue is that while Williams made a huge jump in his first season with Ben Johnson at head coach, there is still a maddening amount of down-to-down inconsistency, whether it’s following up a brilliant throw with an overthrow, or reading out a concept and drilling a throw on the backside only to seemingly get stuck on another look. There’s a fair argument that the highs are enough to give Williams a “plus” grade, but I question how many of his incredible comebacks get all the way back if it’s not for the elite offensive line and standout run game.
All in all, I think it’s an exciting place to be entering Ben Johnson’s second season at the helm, because there are flashes of Williams smoothing all of this out, and the duo of tight end Colston Loveland and receiver Luther Burden looked on track to be an elite duo by season’s end; Loveland is arguably there already, and given that Burden picked up steam with more time in the offense, there’s every reason to expect a jump in Year Two, because the movement skills are top of the charts.
There’s an uphill climb for Dennis Allen and the defense, and with less than $10 million in cap space each of the next two years, general manager Ryan Poles is more or less locked into this version of the roster until 2028, when the club will transition to the fifth-year option on Caleb’s contract. If they are going to make a push in that window - and they were knocking on the door last year - it appears it will need to be on the offense to take another step forward and drive the show.
Offense
There’s a deep cast of players to get excited about on the Chicago offense.
We can start on the offensive line, where left guard Joe Thuney, winner of the NFL’s first Protector of the Year Award, continues to churn out consistent season after consistent season. He’s not the most physically overwhelming guard in the league - his running mate, Jonah Jackson, who was arguably elite in his own right last year, outpaces him in that regard - but Thuney’s down-to-down play adds up over the course of a season. That said, he might not be the best offensive lineman on his own team; I love the way that Darnell Wright has developed, and how the 6’5, 325 pounder uses a patient approach, coupled with his easy movement skills and sheer size, to consistently handle defenders.
The other spots on the line are in transition; the Bears acquired veteran Garrett Bradbury to replace Drew Dalman after the latter’s sudden retirement, but while Dalman was a good player, I wouldn’t point to him as a needle mover on last year’s line, and Bradbury has been an adequate player for a long time. Chicago also drafted Logan Jones at the end of the second round, so they have options at center; the bigger question is at left tackle, where Ozzy Trapilo’s late-season knee injury has him out for all of 2026 after a very impressive 2025 season; the hope is Braxton Jones, who was a passable left tackle before working through a neck injury, can be good enough to get by, but he’s unlikely to be the same presence in the run game.
The skill players are trending towards being elite; I’ve already got Colston Loveland, who brings notable size and is weaponized in both the run and pass game, as a “blue” player already. Similar to Jameson Williams of the Lions and Christian Watson of the Packers, Luther Burden slots in as a “plus” player depending heavily on his explosive ability, and Rome Odunze was off to a strong start last season before a foot injury put things off track. I might be a bit generous bumping D’Andre Swift up to a purple grade, but I thought he showed improved vision last season, and after recently watching some unnamed backs get unblocked to the safety, only to bury their shoulder into that first 1-on-1, I’m putting a bit more emphasis on backs who will make that defender miss (or at least try) and max out the opportunity for an explosive. Kyle Monangai pairs well as a physical complement and downhill runner. Throw tight end Cole Kmet’s well-rounded game and the addition of another tight end in rookie Sam Roush, and the Bears should be able to create a lot of looks in the run game out of big personnel with the ever-present threat of Burden getting loose over the top.
What it all turns into pivots on Williams, and his development; if he continues to develop the way we saw in his first year under Ben Johnson, and does a lot of things he’s already doing on a more consistent basis, he should be in the MVP discussion. The talent is there, both for the player himself and the surrounding cast, and as good as this run game is, Williams is going to be in some shootouts unless this defense surprises in a big way.
Defense
There is something of a silver lining to Chicago’s defensive depth chart, which is that at the end of the day, the unit is not that different than the group from 2025. You swap out veteran linebackers by replacing Tremaine Edmunds with Devin Bush, swap safeties Jaquan Brisker and Kevin Byard for former Seahawk Coby Bryant and first-round pick Dillon Thieneman, and cross your fingers for better health from Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon at cornerback.
That could all come together - Johnson is a clear “plus” player at his best and I thought he was back to challenging routes down the stretch last year, and the safety tandem of Bryant and Thieneman could be an upgrade even if they don’t replace Byard’s gaudy interception total - but it’s a lot of “ifs” to get to below-average, and there are question marks within that relatively optimistic scenario.
My first concern is the depth on the defensive line; I thought Austin Booker flashed as a high-motor player (with RIDICULOUSLY long strides) who is already impacting the game in a variety of ways and could do even more with some refinement, Montez Sweat is a “plus” player across from him, and the interior duo of Grady Jarrett and Gervon Dexter is solid, even if they are unlikely to take over a game.
However, once you get past them, you’re left with two players coming off significant lower-body injuries (DT Shemar Turner, ACL, DE Dayo Odeyingbo, Achilles), and a glut of rotational players. There’s really not an upside play that sticks out in the group, which means Chicago is likely to have some difficulties rushing the passer with four.
There’s also the question of how Tyrique Stevenson plays at outside cornerback; with Nashon Wright departed for the Jets, the only other name of note at outside cornerback is 4th-rounder Malik Muhammad, and while Kyler Gordon can add to a defense as a slot, he lacks the length to bump outside. The linebacker group is far from dominant - D’Marco Jackson has missed a lot of plays on tape I’ve watched, and T.J. Edwards is functional, but doesn’t move the needle - which leaves the defense without a notable strength to lean into.
Dennis Allen has a heck of a track record coordinating defenses in New Orleans, but Year One in Chicago was a frustrating one, and that was with the Bears leading the NFL in interceptions and total turnovers. Unfortunately, they also finished tied for third-last in yards allowed per play - right ahead of the Dallas Cowboys and Cincinnati Bengals - which is likely more reflective of their talent level than a notoriously volatile year-to-year statistic like interceptions. (And if the Bears brass disagreed on that point, I assume Kevin Byard and Nashon Wright would still be on the roster).
Final Takeaways
Whether it was the dramatic comebacks or the turnover rate, there was an element of the 2025 Chicago Bears catching lighting in a bottle; it’s a loose comparison, but we could even draw parallels to the 2024 Washington Commanders, when fellow Class of 2024 led the Commanders to a series of comeback wins, including the infamous “Fail Mary” moment with Tyrique Stevenson, and fell back to Earth when the comebacks dried up and the defense fell apart.
The defense is its own thing, but that seems an unlikely fate for Chicago’s offense. The infrastructure is too good, from the coaching to the offensive line to the run game and the receiving depth. It’s a better group across the board, and unlike the ’24 Commanders, who were consistently elevated by the quarterback, there was much more give and take with the ’25 Bears, who finished 5th in the NFL in rushing attempts and posted the 3rd-highest yards-per-carry in a run game keyed by the line and the backs, not the signal-caller.
As I wound up stacking four NFC North teams here, I think it’s worth noting an overarching theme; the Vikings will likely be the exception because of Brian Flores, but for a variety of reasons, I could see the round robin between the Bears, Lions, and Packers turning into some big-time shootouts; don’t be surprised to see NFC North totals in the 50s getting left in the dust this Fall.