The ESSENTIAL Football Show 
Top 51 Cap Space (per Spotrac): 2026: $10.5 million | 2027: -$53.9 million | 2028: $27.5 million
Draft Picks: 2027: 1-7, LV 7 | 2028: 1-7
Football Decision Makers: GM Brandon Beane | HC Joe Brady | OC Pete Carmichael | DC Jim Leonhard | ST Jeff Rodgers
State of the Team
After a year that saw them fall short once again, the Bills have shifted their coaching staff heading into 2026. Sean McDermott is out as head coach, a role former offensive coordinator Joe Brady will step into while continuing to oversee that side of the ball, and Jim Leonhard is in at defensive coordinator.
The personnel moves, apart from the acquisition of D.J. Moore, are on the margins, but for all the success McDermott had, the shift to Leonhard’s defensive scheme could reinvigorate this group the way that the transition from the more spread-heavy offenses of Brian Daboll and Ken Dorsey to the run-heavy attack that Brady has employed since taking over.
That said, apart from the offensive line, the roster around superstar quarterback Josh Allen is a bit thin on talent. James Cook has developed into one of the league’s better runners, and there are “plus” pieces like defensive tackle Ed Oliver and cornerback Christian Benford on defense, but the roster Brandon Beane has assembled ultimately asks Allen to do a lot of heavy lifting, which is one reason they haven’t gotten over the top. With Allen taking the snaps, this team is going to lean more “championship contender” than “playoff contender”, but Bills fans would like to see this roster pack a bit heavier punch around him.
Offense
The cost to acquire DJ Moore might have come in a bit on the high side, but given the lack of difference-making options on the market, adding a weapon like Moore to Buffalo’s watered-down receiving room solves a significant issue for this unit. Moore should be able to uncover on the outside, something nobody on this offense has done with much consistency of late, and with the fastball that the Bills bring on the inside, there should be plenty of opportunities for Moore to cash in against one on one coverage.
On the inside, the Bills are replacing a quality player at left guard (David Edwards) with more of a journeyman option in Alec Anderson, but the other four starters, including the standout tackle tandem of Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, return, and there is some depth if Anderson falters; Buffalo added Austin Corbett, who has played a lot of solid snaps for Carolina when healthy in the past couple seasons, Lloyd Cushenberry, who will be a year further removed from injury, and 4th-round pick Jude Bowry, who will hopefully slot in as the swing tackle.
Moreover, Buffalo’s blocking surface doesn’t end with the offensive line, and the tight end duo of Jackson Hawes and Dawson Knox is back. Hawes essentially functions as a sixth offensive lineman with the ability to catch the ball in the flat, which allows Knox - who is a capable attached tight end in his own right - to line up in a variety of spots in that flavor of 12 personnel. With Cook as explosive as any back in the league, a capable backup pair in Ray Davis and Ty Johnson, and the notable distraction that Josh Allen presents as a threat in the run game, expect the Bills to keep rolling on the ground the way they have since Brady took over.
The question is how much more juice they can add with a difference-maker on the outside; Moore isn’t an elite receiver, but he’s a respectable top option, and his presence should allow all the complementary pieces behind him to slot into their best roles. Khalil Shakir brings quickness, Keon Coleman brings size, and Josh Palmer brings a blend of route-running and size, while Dalton Kincaid has a good pair of hands and can run a variety of routes as a “move” tight end.
Bringing it all together is Allen, who has a strong case as the best quarterback in the NFL. He is as good as anyone from the pocket, pairing his rocket arm with pinpoint accuracy, and as a runner, he is as overwhelming as anyone in the league. He adds an additional element in the quarterback sneak game, and could once again contend for league MVP honors in 2026.
Defense
Buffalo’s defense never saw the bottom fall out, but the recent vintages were a far cry from the peak days of Matt Milano, Taron Johnson, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and Tre’Davious White.
With McDermott out and Leonard in, those names have all disappeared from the depth chart, leaving Ed Oliver (2019) and Greg Rousseau (2021) as the only defenders with more than four years of tenure. The change at coordinator is paired with a relatively significant number of new players; they added four players in free agency (Bradley Chubb should start on the edge, and nickel Dee Alford and safeties C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Geno Stone should all be in the mix to play snaps in the secondary), and six in the draft, including two 2nd-round picks, a 4th-rounder, and two 5th-rounders.
The volume is notable, but none of the additions profile as premium players, which cuts to the hear of the issue in Buffalo; there are some “plus” players in the mix, but no true field-tilters on this defense. They have done a good job backstopping the depth so there are no glaring weaknesses, but outside of safety Cole Bishop or cornerback Maxwell Hairston developing, it would take one of the rookies surprising for this group to have notable nice on defense.
At all three levels, the talent level feels more “adequate” than “exciting”, which will leave the scheme to do a good bit of the lifting; it will be interesting to see if Leonhard is up to it.
Final Takeaways
The Denver game went the way it went, but at the end of the day, I think it’s fairly reasonable to say the Bills could have own the AFC last year.
The question is more about how they would have matched up with Seattle, and while I think it’s foolish to suggest any team with Josh Allen doesn’t have a chance, I think the Bills defense might have been an easier matchup for Seattle, and that the line would have favored Seattle by several points.
That’s not what fans want from these teams built around elite quarterbacks. The reality is that, once you’re winning, it becomes very difficult to acquire elite talent, particularly in this free agent landscape, and without elite talent, it’s hard to have the advantage against whatever team is destined to rise to the top in a given season. And while I’d love to say that Jim Leonhard can maximize his role players and additions the same way a Mike Macdonald can in Seattle, the reality is that there is no Leonard Williams or Byron Murphy at defensive tackle on this roster, nor is there a Devon Witherspoon at cornerback, or a Nick Emmanowari at safety. Ed Oliver and Christian Benford are impact players in their own right, but they don’t match that talent level, and the Bills depth chart doesn’t feature as many of those players.
All that to say that while Leonhard could make a positive difference, there’s only so much that shifts in tactics can accomplish. Buffalo’s defense could well take a step forward, but at the end of the day, this operation will continue to hinge on what the quarterback does. Put together Allen on his best day and Leonhard’s defense playing to their ceiling, and I can see this team lifting the Lombardi, but I can’t see them being dominant on both sides of the ball the way I can see a team like the Rams turning out.