The ESSENTIAL Football Show 
Top 51 Cap Space (per Spotrac): 2026: $19.7 million | 2027: $122.1 million | 2028: $345.8 million
Draft Picks: 2027: 1-6 | 2028: 1-7
Football Decision Makers: GM Ian Cunningham | HC Kevin Stefanski | OC Tommy Rees | DC Jeff Ulbrich | ST Craig Aukerman
State of the Team
There have been plenty of bad general managers in the history of the NFL, and former Dolphins GM Chris Grier lapped this year’s field of fired executives as far as “worst job” went, but former Falcons GM Terry Fontenot deserves his props in this area as well.
Atlanta does possess its share of impact players - with three players I currently have as “plus” teetering on the line of elite - but outside of that, the roster that head coach Kevin Stefanski is taking over is full of holes.
The Falcons lacked resources to re-make the roster this past offseason, which likely factored into the decision to play this as what appears to be a “reset” year. Between quarterback Michael Penix’s torn ACL, the $44 million in dead cap hits ($22.5 to Kirk Cousins, $11 to Darnell Mooney), and edge rusher James Pearce’s off-field activities, it’s understandable that, despite having about $20 million in cap space for the upcoming season, Atlanta decided to largely stand pat.
There’s still some hope for the 2026 season - the Falcons do play in the NFC South, after all - but while a rebound season for either Penix or free-agent addition Tua Tagovailoa could put them in division contention this season, Atlanta might well be better off having both of those reclamation projects fail, which would give them a shot at finding their franchise quarterback in the 2027 offseason cycle.
Offense
Before we get into the full outlook, I want to get out ahead on potential debates on receiver Drake London and right guard Chris Lindstrom’s purple grades, because there is a strong case for both players being “blue”; I went back and forth on this myself. Ultimately, I see London as a notch below the Ja’Marr Chases and Justin Jeffersons of the world, and while Lindstrom’s ability to get to the second level in the run game is absolutely elite, some of his inconsistencies in pass protection caused me to go with the “plus” grade. (Bijan Robinson’s “blue” grade at running back was a far easier decision; I typically remove “Hall of Fame” in the offseason, but Bijan’s 2025 was certainly a “gold” season.)
Unfortunately, regardless of what grade we put on those players, this offense has all sorts of holes behind them. The offensive line should be solid; right tackle Jawaan Taylor was too expensive for what he brought to Kansas City, but is at a better price point here and should be at least as good as Elijah Wilkinson was last season. On the left side, Jake Matthews remains steady, Matthew Bergeron is a solid piece, and Ryan Neuzil, though a step back from former center Drew Dalman, is a guy you can play with.
It’s at this point we get to the depth, and the quarterback, none of which looks good. Tight end Kyle Pitts is an intriguing talent, but we need to see how Stefanski and offensive coordinator Tommy Rees deploy him; Pitts is either a “solid” or “plus” player as a receiver, but as an in-line tight end, he is a “target” (read: victim) as a blocker, and if Rees asks Pitts to get blown off the line of scrimmage as often as departed OC Zac Robinson did, it could be another frustrating year ahead.
Beyond Pitts, there isn’t even the glimmer of potential. Darnell Mooney missed much of last season, but at least has some viable seasons on the books; it’s hard to say the same of veteran journeymen Jahan Dotson and Olamide Zaccheaus, though both are likely to play significant roles given that the veteran group behind them is filled with career backups. Perhaps third-round pick Zachariah Branch, or one of Atlanta’s undrafted rookie receivers, cracks this rotation sooner than later (Branch should get every opportunity to do so), but even if that happens, there’s the question of who will be throwing the ball.
Of the two quarterback options, Penix’s physical traits would seemingly give him more upside, but it’s tough to get excited about that potential experience given how last season went; there are particular throws that Penix spins as well as anyone, but he doesn’t have a lot of clubs in his bag as a passer, and using his mobility may be a non-starter coming off the knee injury. As for Tagovailoa, the diminutive signal-caller has been successful running a hyper-specific type of offense tailored to his (relative) lack of traits, and while that got rolling for a time, the Dolphins ultimately couldn’t innovate fast enough to keep Tagovailoa’s offense out ahead of the pack.
Atlanta does have a decent backup runner in Brian Robinson, and two veteran tight ends in Austin Hooper and Charlie Woerner who can both get it done as blockers. Their presence (should) allow Pitts to move around the formation - were I in Rees’s shoes, I would be looking to use London and Pitts as interchangeable pieces in the “power slot” and “Z” roles, which would allow Pitts to motion and get into his long strides a bit more easily - but while that might max out the skill position talent, it wouldn’t change the quarterback situation, and that’s ultimately what will likely limit this offense.
Defense
Time will tell when we next see James Pearce on an NFL field, but as it stands, his off-field situation seems to have obscured the fact that, despite putting up terrific counting stats with 10.5 sacks, Pearce’s rookie tape was not particularly inspiring. Even hitting games where Pearce puts up multiple sacks - and acknowledging that he does pursue the ball and get to the spots to finish off sacks - I have yet to see the tape where Pearce is showing off high-end hand combat techniques as a pass rusher. His tape reminded me a LOT of Kayvon Thibodeaux’s rookie tape for the New York Giants; Thibodeaux didn’t get the benefit of cracking double-digit sacks, but his sacks were often cleanups rather than pass rush wins, and both players were absolutely awful against the run.
It’s an important caveat, because if the tape matched the counting stats, a Falcons defense with Pearce would be much more interesting. Pearce’s fellow 2025 1st-round pick and edge rusher, Jalon Walker, has more flashes on the hand combat side, and while he only posted 5.5 sacks as a rookie, the production should follow if he builds on that. In the backend, cornerback AJ Terrell is right on that line between plus and elite, while safety Jessie Bates makes it as a “blue” player in my book based on the veterans’s OUTSTANDING instincts and ability to bait quarterbacks into bad picks. Bates has a really solid running mate in Xavier Watts, who plays a similarly high-IQ game, and while Billy Bowman is currently overcoming a torn Achilles, it sure looked like the Falcons had something in their rookie slot during his first six games as a pro. Throw in the addition of Avian Terrell (A.J.’s younger brother) as an inside/outside option in the draft, and the presence of veteran Mike Hughes, who is a viable starting outside corner, and the Atlanta secondary could be quite good.
Unfortunately, the defensive front seems unlikely to hold up its end of the bargain; we already addressed the edges, but the middle of this defense is a mess. The linebacker duo of Divine Deablo and Christian Harris would bring range, but that pairing is undersized, which is less than ideal with the way the NFL is trending, and the “down” defensive linemen in front of them features a bunch of rotational options with names like Brandon Dorius, Da’Shawn Hand, Zach Harrison, and Mason Smith. All of those players have shown they should be on an NFL roster, but without a “War Daddy” for them to rally around, it’s hard to imagine this front being anything better than below-average.
It’s possible the Falcons get something out of Samson Ebukam on the edge - he is now two years removed from injury after a lost 2024 campaign - but it’s hard to say if that would mean anything in the grand scheme of things. Ultimately, there appear to be too many holes in this defense, and while defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich did a solid enough job to retain his position despite the head coaching change, I’m not sure how he could go “above and beyond” last year’s work to elevate this unit.
Final Takeaways
After the Terry Fontenot experience, a reset year in Atlanta is absolutely necessary.
That’s a bitter pill to swallow; whether it was spending $200 million on a free-agent QB (Cousins), drafting a QB Top 10 in the same offseason cycle (Penix), or trading a future first-rounder (which could have been Rueben Bain in the 2026 NFL Draft) for Pearce, you’d sure as heck like to think the Falcons ended up somewhere near contention. Instead, they wound up with one quarterback signing a deal with Vegas (where they seemed to go out of their way to stick it to the Falcons on the contract structure), another quarterback who has now suffered three torn ACLs in his career, and an edge rusher spending his second offseason with a rather pressing need to focus on his legal situation. (It’s always interesting when vague “red flags” on prospects turn into real-life events).
All in all, the future may well be bright in Atlanta under the new regime, but from where I’m sitting, it appears it will be at least one more year before they start to realize that vision in on-field results. Fortunately, the Falcons currently have the second-most cap space in 2027 and 2028, as well as almost* all of their draft picks the next two seasons, so new GM Ian Cunningham is going to get his chance to cook, and unlike some organizations with huge future assets, the Falcons have a core of “plus” and “elite” players who should make it possible for this team to compete in those seasons; they need to get the quarterback position sorted, but if that happens, there’s plenty of reason for optimism moving forward. If Stefanski can use 2026 to establish a quality culture and unearth a few long-term contributors, I think the season will go down as a “W” for the black and red, even if the W-L column doesn’t wind up lining up with that.