The ESSENTIAL Football Show 2025 Cap Space: $20.4 million
2026 Cap Space: - $42.8 million (negative)
2027 Cap Space: $127.9 million
2026 Draft Picks: Own Picks, Rounds 1-6, plus comp pick 4th Rd
It happened against their will, but when news broke that quarterback Derek Carr will retire due to a shoulder injury, general manager Mickey Loomis and the collective Saints organization were finally forced into rebuild mode. It’s long overdue, and with new head coach Kellen Moore stepping into his first year on the job, the timing makes sense.
I applaud Loomis for going all-in during the final years of the Drew Brees and Sean Payton era, but the insistence on continuing to push, even after Payton briefly joined Brees in retirement, just hasn’t made sense. That final version of their roster, sparked by the legendary 2017 draft class, was arguably the most talented in the NFL for a three-year stretch, and it will always be frustrating looking back and knowing that team didn’t bring home the ultimate prize, particularly given some of the controversial finishes along the way… but that time is over.
While it’s unfortunate for Derek Carr to go out this way, odds are it is ultimately a blessing for the Saints, and not one that is particularly disguised. With some understanding of Carr’s situation, New Orleans took a flyer on Tyler Shough in the second round, which gives them two players, including Spencer Rattler, who are at least worth looking at during the upcoming season. The situation is not so different from the one in Cleveland; if Rattler can improve, or if Shough turns out to be a hit, then the team can hit the ground running in the 2026 offseason. And if the quarterback situation doesn’t work out, then the team should lose enough games to be in the mix at the top of the NFL Draft next offseason, where they can target a long-term solution.
The reality of their current situation may also turn the Saints into active sellers; as recently as this offseason, Loomis was giving up draft picks to acquire pieces like defensive tackle Davon Godchaux in an effort to push the envelope in 2025, but unless they come blazing out of the gates, it seems likely that defensive end Cam Jordan, linebacker Demario Davis, and safety Tyrann Mathieu, who all have a single year left on their deals, could be on the move. If Loomis really wants to get aggressive, he could look to flip the 31-year old Godchaux, and if the right team becomes desperate enough, it might make more sense for running back Alvin Kamara to play his age-30 season on a more competitive roster.
It would be odd to see Kamara, Jordan, or Davis, three players who defined this era of Saints football, playing for any other team, but the reality is that while the uniform and the organization’s name are the same, this trio isn’t playing for the same team as it is.
Quarterback
Starter: Unknown
Backups: Tyler Shough (2nd Rd), Spencer Rattler, Jake Haener
Running Back
Starters: Alvin Kamara
Backups: Kendre Miller, Devin Neal (6th Rd), Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Wide Receiver
Starters: Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Brandin Cooks
Backups: Cedrick Wilson Jr., Bub Means, Kevin Austin Jr.
Tight End
Starters: Foster Moreau, Juwan Johnson
Backups: Taysom Hill (IR), Jack Stoll, Dallin Holker, Moliki Matavao (7th Rd)
Offensive Line
Starters: Kelvin Banks (1st Rd), Taliese Fuaga, Erik McCoy, Cesar Ruiz, Trevor Penning
Backups: Josh Ball, Nick Saldiveri, Will Clapp, Dillon Radunz
Offense Overview
The biggest positive the Saints have moving forward is their offensive line, and they doubled down on that by selecting Kelvin Banks Jr., a Texas product, with the 9th overall pick.
Obviously, the pick needs to work out, but if Banks is a player, the Saints will have a pair of young building blocks on rookie deals (Banks and 2024 1st round pick Taliese Fuaga), as well as the veteran interior tandem of center Erik McCoy and right guard Cesar Ruiz, who, at the ages of 28 and 26, can reasonably be expected to be part of this team’s core once they’ve got everything in place to compete again.
Precisely where the younger pair lines up is the bigger question; right now, the Saints have Trevor Penning at right tackle, but they appear set for a split him after declining his fifth-year option, which opens the possibility of playing both Banks and Fuaga at tackle if that’s where Kellen Moore and the coaching staff see them long-term.
However, I doubt it will play out this way; there were mixed opinions on whether Banks would be a better fit at guard or tackle, and while I think Fuaga could develop into a top-line offensive tackle, I think he is an All-Pro candidate if you stick him at guard this year. It’s not that I don’t like the player - Fuaga actually reminds me of former Ravens/Raiders offensive lineman Kelchi Osemele, an Iowa State product who, like Fuaga, was an absolute mauler capable of generating rare displacement in the run game - but both players were susceptible to allowing pass rushers to get on their edges when they lined up at tackle.
In any case, the Saints have a lot of choices, and while they might not have picked up Penning’s option, it probably makes sense to give him a go at right tackle given the relative improvements he has made since his rookie year. Penning needs to continue to improve his balance and footwork, but there’s no question he has the frame to play tackle in the NFL; if he takes another step forward this year, the Saints would be solid across their starting five, which is a big plus for whoever winds up playing quarterback.
The skill position is much more up in the air given the season-ending injuries suffered by Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Taysom Hill. Shaheed’s torn meniscus offers the most optimistic timeline, but Hill tore his ACL in December, which means he likely won’t be available to start the season, and Olave’s situation remains murky as he works his way back from multiple concussions. Kamara will be back at running back, but unless Brandin Cooks can turn back the clock in his return to New Orleans, that’s going to leave the quarterback with limited weapons.
As to who that quarterback will be, my money is on Tyler Shough playing as many reps as possible. Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener both saw extended playing time last season, but while Rattler showed improvement in “winning” that job, his overall lack of size and physical traits don’t suggest he has a particularly high ceiling. Rattler has a live arm for his size and did some good things - it wouldn’t surprise me to see him stick as a long-term backup in the league - but given the draft analyst consensus on Shough, who brings more prototypical traits to the table, it seems like his evaluation should be the priority, and given that one of Shough’s red flags was a lengthy injury history, gauging where he can stay on the field in the NFL is a big part of that evaluation.
Defensive Tackle
Starters: Davon Godchaux, Bryan Bresee
Backups: Khalen Saunders, Nathan Shepherd, Vernon Broughton (3rd Rd), John Ridgeway
Edge
Starters: Chase Young, Carl Granderson
Backups: Cam Jordan, Isaiah Foskey, Fadil Diggs (7th Rd), Chris Rumph
Linebackers
Starters: Demario Davis, Pete Werner
Backups: D’Marco Jackson, Danny Stutsman (4th Rd)
Safety
Starters: Justin Reid, Tyrann Mathieu
Backups: Jonas Sanker (3rd Rd), Jordan Howden, J.T. Gray
Slot
Starter: Alontae Taylor (start outside, move to slot)
Backups: Ugo Amadi
Outside CB
Starters: Kool-Aid McKinstry, Isaac Yiadom
Backups: Quincy Riley (4th Rd)
Defense Overview
While some of the names remain the same, the Saints defense is also set for a transition as they move on from Dennis Allen to work under new defensive coordinator Brandon Staley.
Many of the names are still familiar, but given the age of the unit, it’s fair to expect significant turnover in the next two years as Staley molds this defense in his image. The Saints made Chase Young the centerpiece of their defense when they signed him to a three-year extension, speedy linebacker Pete Werner is playing on an extension from his rookie deal, and safety Justin Reid also appears to be in for the long haul after signing a three-year deal.
Beyond that, little is set in stone. Cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry, their 2024 second-rounder, is coming off a promising year and should be in the fold for the long run, but his fellow cornerback, Alontae Taylor, is in the final year of his deal, which could make him expendable depending on how things play out.
There are enough players here for the Saints to field a solid defense if everything goes right, but the unit is also not dramatically different from last season, and that group struggled badly down the stretch. It didn’t help that the offense was consistently putting them in bad situations, but this defense simply isn’t what it was during their peak years under Allen.
Overall Outlook
Depending on how you look at it, the Carr injury could be a bit of a downer in terms of the excitement level for the 2025 season, but I’m not sure how high the hopes were with Carr in place. In many ways, there’s more to anticipate without him; the variance is much higher, but figuring out where this team will go in the post-Carr era, and how the Saints can get back to playing championship-caliber football, could be a much more interesting journey than seeing whether Carr can get this team back to 8 or 9 wins.