The ESSENTIAL Football Show 2025 Cap Space: $58.0 million
2026 Cap Space: $10.8 million
2027 Cap Space: $100.6 million
2026 Draft Picks: Own Picks, Rounds 1-7, plus CHI Rd 4, KC Rd 6, NO Rd 7
The times keep changing in New England, as the post-Belichick era was followed by the brief tenure of Jerod Mayo, who is out the door after one year as ownership’s hand-picked head coach, replaced by former Patriots linebacker and Titans head coach Mike Vrabel.
Vibes have been good since news broke that Vrabel would indeed take over in New England, which makes sense; Vrabel is a headline-grabbing name, a certified badass who exudes presence on the sidelines and a (reasonably) impressive track record from his time running the show in Tennessee.
There are stark differences between the two situations, however; Vrabel’s Tennessee squads were a quarterback away, an issue they resolved to some satisfaction with the acquisition of Ryan Tannehill, who would take over for Marcus Mariota and spark a deep playoff run during Vrabel’s second season with the Titans.
The Patriots?
They have the quarterback.
They’re just a roster away.
Quarterback
Starter: Drake Maye
Backups: Josh Dobbs
Running Back
Starters: Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson (Rd 2)
Backups: Antonio Gibson, Terrell Jennings
Wide Receiver
Starters: Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, DeMario Douglas
Backups: Kyle Williams (Rd 3), Kayshon Boutte, Kendrick Bourne, Javon Baker, Ja’Lynn Polk
Tight End
Starters: Hunter Henry
Backups: Austin Hooper, Jaheim Bell
Offensive Line
Starters: Will Campbell (1st Rd), Cole Strange, Garrett Bradbury, Mike Onwenu, Morgan Moses
Backups: Vederian Lowe, Layden Robinson, Jared Wilson (3rd Rd), Wes Schweitzer, Caeden Wallace, Ben Brown, Sidy Sow, Demontrey Jacobs
Offense Overview
Given the good vibes around New England, and the haze of indifference around their 2024 season, it was somewhat jarring to look at this depth chart and realize how bad things have gone in recent seasons.
Let’s start with the good: the Patriots have second-year quarterback Drake Maye, who was about as impressive as a rookie can be in a situation this dysfunctional. Despite the difficult circumstances around him, Maye continued to battle, and perhaps most importantly, he continued to be aggressive pushing the ball down the field despite playing with inferior talent.
The frustrating thing about last season is that while New England’s most recent first round picks, Maye and cornerback Christian Gonzalez, played well, the Patriots didn’t unearth any long-term contributors while conducting what were essentially open tryouts. Right guard Mike Onwenu was the only legit starter in the group once center David Andrews went down, but while players like Vederian Lowe, Layden Robinson, and Demontrey Jacobs went from “completely overwhelmed” to “solid depth” as they accumulated reps throughout the season, the fact that the Patriots are slated to start four new players around Onwenu speaks to the fact that nobody seized the opportunity.
That is particularly disappointing given that the Patriots had spent significant draft capital at the position in 2023 (Jake Andrews, 4th; Sidy Sow, 4th, Atonio Mafi, 5th) and 2024 (Caeden Wallace, 3rd; Layden Robinson, 4th). Mid-round picks are a dice roll, but given the opportunities this group had, it would have been nice to find at least one decent starter from these five picks.
The same is true of the receiver room: Ja’Lynn Polk was the only receiver drafted with a notable pick (2nd round), but you would still hope to get something out of Demario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte, Javon Baker, or Polk. Instead, veteran Kendrick Bourne wound up in the discussion for New England’s most reliable receiver in 2024, and Patriots fans are counting on 2025 3rd-rounder Kyle Williams to step up alongside veterans Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins, with the former coming off a torn ACL.
It will go a long way if rookie Will Campbell, who went 4th overall in this year’s draft, pushes the streak of quality 1st-round picks to 3, but even if he does, this offensive unit is heavily reliant on veteran imports, and it’s a lot to ask for (1) this unit to gel and (2) for all of those players to stay healthy.
That said, there is a clear path to success for this unit; if rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson can add some juice in the backfield alongside Rhamondre Stevenson, and the veterans hit, they could easily be the second-best offense in the AFC East. The bigger takeaway is that, even if the Patriots hit that ceiling this season, they are going to need to remake this unit next offseason, and until this year’s crop of rookies hits, it’s hard to point to anyone besides Maye and Onwenu as surefire pieces of the offense heading into 2026.
Defensive Tackle
Starters: Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, Khyiris Tonga
Backups: Joshua Farmer (4th Rd), Jeremiah Pharms Jr., Eric Johnson
Edge
Starters: Harold Landry, Keion White
Backups: Anfernee Jennings, K’Lavon Chaisson
Linebackers
Starters: Robert Spillane, Christian Elliss
Backups: Jahlani Tavai, Jack Gibbens
Safety
Starters: Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers
Backups: Craig Woodson (4th Rd), Marcus Epps, Jaylinn Hawkins, Dell Pettus, Marte Mapu
Slot
Starter: Marcus Jones
Outside CB
Starters: Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis
Backups: Alex Austin, Marcellas Dial
Defense Overview
Much like the offense, New England’s defense got a makeover this offseason, but aside from 26-year old defensive tackle Milton Williams, who signed a blockbuster contract coming off a terrific season in Philadelphia, the other changes may prove to be part of a short-term makeover.
On the upside, additions such as edge Harold Landry, linebacker Robert Spillane, and cornerback Carlton Davis should provide an immediate upgrade on defense in 2024, and the moves clearly signal to the locker room that the Patriots intend to be competitive in 2025.
The question is exactly how far those moves will take them. If Christian Barmore can return to form after battling blood clot issues last season, the Patriots would have a formidable tandem on the interior, but as it stands, that’s up in the air. Even with Barmore, Williams would be slated to get more attention than he did in Philadelphia, where fellow defensive tackle Jalen Carter was the focal point of opponent’s protection plans; without Barmore, Williams can count on getting the full spotlight treatment from opponent offenses.
In the best-case scenario, Landry, Spillane, and Davis would provide a short-term boost in 2025, with Davis pairing with All-Pro cornerback Christian Gonzalez to provide suffocating coverage on the outside and free up the other 9 defenders to handle the rest of the offense, and the Patriots would acquire heir apparents for each of them in the 2026 offseason.
In the worst-case scenario, age catches up with these players, and the Patriots, with limited resources available to upgrade the 2026 roster, stalls out in this build around Drake Maye.
Overall Outlook
This write-up has taken on a bit of a gloomy tone, which I hardly anticipated when I started the review. After all, I’m extremely high on both Drake Maye and Christian Gonzalez, and given where they sat at the beginning of the 2025 NFL offseason, I think the Patriots have done a good job setting themselves up for the best possible season in the coming year.
All in all, the big takeaway is that this organization still has a lot of work to do to get out of the woods. They have set themselves up with a shot for a quick rebound in 2025, but almost more important than their W-L record in the upcoming season is finding cost-controlled, long-term building blocks as they look to build a perennial contender around their young signal-caller. The two things could go hand-in-hand, as having more proven veterans in the building, and a new coaching staff, could create a better environment for development.
I believe in Vrabel, and I believe in the quarterback, so I’m not out on New England by any means. However, when I look at this roster, and the roadmap of how the organization would build from 2025 to 2026 to 2027 if all goes according to plan with the quarterback, I don’t see a clear field, but a group that will need a significant amount of turnover as they look to establish a more settled long-term plan.