The ESSENTIAL Football Show 2025 Cap Space: $15.5 million
2026 Cap Space: - $32.4 million (negative)
2027 Cap Space: $86.5 million
2026 Draft Picks: Own Picks, Rounds 1-4, 7, plus Comp Pick, 3rd Rd, 5th Rd
In a league where it’s all too easy to stick with what’s working, you have to admire the conviction of Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. Say what you will about Sam Darnold’s finish and the ability J.J. McCarthy flashed in preseason action; a more conservative braintrust might have looked to stick with Darnold and try to recoup some value trading McCarthy to a quarterback-needy team.
Instead, the Vikings are moving forward with McCarthy, and they took full advantage of the freedom that cap space created for them, fortifying both of their lines with the additions of center Ryan Kelly, right guard Will Fries, and defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. They came into the draft light on assets, but still used their first-round pick on left guard Donovan Jackson, which could completely change the complexion of a Minnesota offense that, for all their talent at the skill position, has been below average on the interior offensive line for half-a-decade.
There are several things that need to come together - the free agent class is talented, but Fries and Hargrave are both coming off season-ending injuries, Allen missed the bulk of last year due to injury, Kelly’s health has always been an iffy issue, and on top of the additions, left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who is a borderline elite player when healthy, is coming off a torn ACL - but if everything clicks, this offense has a chance to be exceptionally talented across the board in 2025, and when you combine that with a Brian Flores-led defense, the Vikings could certainly push this build to the next level in 2025.
Quarterback
Starter: J.J. McCarthy
Backups: Sam Howell, Brett Rypien
Running Back
Starters: Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason
Backups: Ty Chandler, C.J. Ham (FB)
Wide Receiver
Starters: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor
Backups: Tai Felton (3rd Rd), Rondale Moore, Tim Jones
Tight End
Starters: T.J. Hockenson, Josh Oliver
Backups: Gavin Bartholomew (6th Rd)
Offensive Line
Starters: Christian Darrisaw (knee), Donovan Jackson (1st Rd), Ryan Kelly, Will Fries (broken leg), Brian O’Neill
Backups: Walter Rouse, Blake Brandel, Michael Jurgens, Henry Byrd, Justin Skule
Offense Overview
The more I’m looking at this, the more I think the Vikings may be the league’s most volatile team on both sides of the ball.
That starts at the quarterback position, where J.J. McCarthy remains a total unknown as in terms of both playing ability and availability entering this second NFL season. The Vikings spent a first-round pick on him, so they obviously like him, and if everything works out around him, he’s in an about as good a scenario as you could hope for. Kevin O’Connell has always been able to dial up plays on offense, and with the upgrades on the interior offensive line, O’Connell should have a lot more optionality in terms of being able to consistently lean on the run game.
In addition to the moves they made on the offensive line, the Vikings backstopped Aaron Jones at running back, acquiring Jordan Mason from the 49ers, a critical move given that Jones has struggled to stay healthy in recent seasons. Their top four targets are among the best of the league, with Justin Jefferson in the discussion as the league’s premier receiver, Jordan Addison the type of number two who would be one on the right team, a productive number three option in Jalen Nailor, and a high-end two-way tight end in T.J. Hockenson. Throw in Josh Oliver, who adds a distinct element to the run game as an impact blocker at tight end, and the potential for third round receiver Tai Felton to add to an already deep group of pass-catching corps, and the positive side of this outcome looks very rosy.
The caveat to all of this is that there appears to be a lot higher odds of hitting the downside than most potential contenders. That starts with the questions surrounding McCarthy, but it extends to the health questions surrounding Aaron Jones, Christian Darrisaw, Ryan Kelly and Will Fries. If things break the right way, the sky is the limit, but there’s also a clear path to things going wrong in a significant way.
Defensive Tackle
Starters: Harrison Phillips, Jonathan Allen, Javon Hargrave
Backups: Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins (5th Rd), Jalen Redmond, Taki Taimani, Levi Drake Rodriguez
Edge
Starters: Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel
Backups: Dallas Turner, Bo Richter
Linebackers
Starters: Blake Cashman, Ivan Pace Jr.
Backups: Eric Wilson, Kobe King (6th Rd), Brian Asamoah
Safety
Starters: Harrison Smith, Josh Mettellus
Backups: Theo Jackson, Jay Ward
Slot
Starter: Byron Murphy Jr.
Backups: Tavierre Thomas
Outside CB
Starters: Isaiah Rodgers, Mekhi Blackmon
Backups: Jeff Okudah, Ambry Thomas
Defense Overview
Speaking of volatile, everything from the scheme to the health to the upside on Minnesota’s defense seems to fit in that category.
It starts up front, where the 30-year-old Jonathan Allen and 32-year-old Javon Hargrave are big name additions who didn’t play a lot of football last season. The upside is clear, as Allen and Hargrave were both blue-chip players in their primes, but while there were only so many options available in free agency, I’m not sure targeting players whose best days are behind them as primary contributors is necessarily an ideal option.
If Allen and Hargrave do work out, this pass rush will be a nightmare inside and out, as Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel both qualified as hits after signing in free agency, and former first-rounder Dallas Turner had a handful of flashes that allow for hope he could develop into a more consistently impactful player in Year Two, similar to Nolan Smith in Philadelphia.
The back end presents a few more concerns and arguably less upside. Harrison Smith has continued to play really good ball into his mid-thirties, but he’s going to drop off at some point, and players like Josh Metellus and Theo Jackson might not fit in as well without Smith’s presence. The cornerback room is similarly dicey; Byron Murphy has developed into a solid player, as indicated by the extension he signed this offseason, but Isaiah Rodgers profiled as something of a question mark in his opportunities filling in because of injury in Philadelphia, and Mekhi Blackmon is coming off a torn ACL. The linebacker duo of Blake Cashman and Ivan Pace is a nice combination of steady and sparkplug - Pace’s instinctive, gap-shooting style of play is a lot of un to watch - but they aren’t good enough to stabilize this defense if things go haywire in the front or the back end.
Like the offensive side, this strikes me as a parlay bet with more than one high-risk piece; if everything clicks, the payoff could be terrific, but things could wind up looking fairly grim if some of their older veterans are unable to make it through the season.
Overall Outlook
Time will tell if it’s for better or worse, but Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell have pushed all their chips in behind J.J. McCarthy, and after watching them ultimately pass on building around Kirk Cousins and Darnold, it’s going to be fascinating to see how this Minnesota offense looks out of the gates. If McCarthy is better than Darnold or Cousins - a reasonably high bar to set, but one you’d assume the Vikings football braintrust hopes he clears - the sky is the limit.