The ESSENTIAL Football Show 2025 Cap Space: $11.7 million
2026 Cap Space: $4.9 million
2027 Cap Space: $109.4 million
2026 Draft Picks: Own Picks, Rounds 1-7, plus 4th Rd Comp, HOU 3rd Rd
On a positive note, it seems like the Dolphins finally realized the downside of going “all-in” on quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s rookie contract window.
The problem is that the realization came at least two years too late; now, with mounting pressure to deliver a playoff win with this team build, general manager Chris Grier and head coach Mike McDaniel are working damage control.
Maybe this is reading too much into a single comment, but Grier’s on former second-round corner Cam Smith, who is entering his third season, needing to come through at this point seems to speak to the fact that this team didn’t properly account for the fact that the light at the end of the tunnel was a southbound train. The Dolphins need Smith to come through now, sure, but they also needed him to come through before Grier signed Kendall Fuller for the 2024 season, a move that drained more resources from a team that was trying to shoot an extremely narrow gap after the collective resources traded for Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb, and Jalen Ramsey.
On top of that, while it would still be a positive if Smith makes the transformation from unplayable to become a reliable starter, it’s hardly as if that would tip the scales for Miami. The retirement of Terron Armstead leaves them without their most talented offensive lineman, the edge rush is counting on a pair of players trying to overcome lengthy injury histories (Chubb and Jaelen Phillips), and Hill and Ramsey, who would in theory be the “veteran leaders” for this group, have both been involved in trade rumours this offseason.
The Dolphins aren’t going to punt on the 2025 season entirely, but I think there’s something to the idea that they may need to take a step back to take two steps forward. If you’re of the opinion that Miami is just a few bad breaks away from a Super Bowl, then maybe you run it back as is, but I don’t think many folks see it that way at this point. Were I in Grier and McDaniel’s shoes, I would spend the upcoming season repackaging this team around its younger pieces and showing there is somewhere else to build for the future, because this path has run out of road.
Quarterback
Starter: Tua Tagovailoa
Backups: Zach Wilson, Quinn Ewers
Running Back
Starters: De’Von Achane
Backups: Jaylen Wright, Alexander Mattison, Ollie Gordon (6th Rd)
Wide Receiver
Starters: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Malik Washington
Backups: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Erik Ezukanma, Dee Eskridge
Tight End
Starters: Jonnu Smith
Backups: Pharaoh Brown, Julian Hill
Offensive Line
Starters: Patrick Paul, James Daniels (Achilles), Aaron Brewer, Jonah Savaiinaea (2nd Rd), Austin Jackson
Backups: Ryan Hayes, Jackson Carman, Andrew Meyer, Liam Eichenberg, Larry Borom
Offense Breakdown
Tua Tagovailoa’s early-season concussion completely derailed this unit, but that only caused folks to look away from an offense that had deep flaws.
This starts at the center position, where the decision to insert the undersized Aaron Brewer as part of Miami’s “all-speed” theme was a disaster out of the gates and only got marginally better as the season went on. Brewer has the movement skills to get out in space, but his inability to take on solo blocks at the point of attack severely limits Miami’s playbook, and as importantly, their inability to go “at” the opposing defense in the run game makes it easier to handle everything else this offense does.
Miami is attempting to get the offensive line back on track, but the path is loaded with potential pitfalls. Patrick Paul, their 2nd round pick from 2024, is slated to start at left tackle, but while Paul has the size to play the position (6’7, 330), he was only adequate in his better moments last season, and was downright bad in others. James Daniels, a free-agent addition, is slated to start at left guard, but is coming off a torn Achilles and is on his third team. Even if Daniels were to get back to full strength, his best film is average, and I think it’s fair to question whether the Dolphins would have been better off retaining Robert Jones, who is significantly younger and was arguably Miami’s best lineman in terms of combining availability with adequate play in 2024.
The right side offers no more certainty; right guard Jonah Savaiinaea could add some bulk next to Brewer if he hits, but the Arizona product is also a second-round pick, so whether or not he hits is an open question. Austin Jackson will return at tackle, but Jackson missed 9 games last year and has missed a total of 25 games over the past three seasons; even when available, Jackson is an average player at the position, rounding out a group that is average at best and could easily be bottom-five.
The silver lining is at the skill positions, where running back De’Von Achane and receiver Jaylen Waddle are relatively young players who have flashed big-time star power. Waddle had a down year statistically in 2024, but at 26, it doesn’t look like Waddle has lost his elite burst and speed, and as long as he has that, a rebound season could easily be in the cards. Throw in tight end Jonnu Smith, who found a groove in this offense down the stretch, and receiver Malik Washington, another undersized receiver who put up some good film as a sixth-round rookie, and Miami has options.
The bigger question is whether the organization moves beyond 2025 with the combo of coach Mike McDaniel and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa; while I enjoy watching Tagovailoa play, I’d put him in the same bucket as Bryce Young as players who can operate at an extremely high level in the short to intermediate game, but who lack the physical tools to make up for it if the timing and execution of the play don’t happen as designed.
At the end of the day, I think that this offense needed to add size and physicality, not more speed, after they crapped out in the 2023 playoffs against Kansas City. As it stands, Miami is slated to start two receivers listed at 5’8 (Hill and Washington) and another listed at 5’10 (Jaylen Waddle). Achane is 5’8, 190, and his backup, Jaylen Wright, is a veritable giant on this squad at 5’10 and 210 pounds (Waddle is listed at 185).
If we were casting for a Revenge of the Midgets movie, this strategy might have made sense, but given how poorly Derrick Henry ran the ball in his final year with the Titans, and the fact that Aaron Brewer was arguably the biggest problem with the group, I can’t believe anyone signed him to start, or that he will continue to start heading into 2025. I’m not against undersized centers - Jason Kelce is one of my all-time favorite watches - but Brewer is not nearly as dynamic a player as Kelce was in space, and he’s also not as good handling the more traditional duties as an in-line blocker; all things considered, the juice just isn’t worth the squeeze to me, but unfortunately, Miami’s backup linemen consist of solidly established backups like Liam Eichenberg and Larry Borom, so if this starting five can’t cut it, the calvary isn’t coming to help.
Defensive Tackle
Starters: Zach Sieler, Kenneth Grant (1st Rd), Benito Jones
Backups: Jordan Phillips (5th Rd), Neil Farrell, Matt Dickerson, Zeek Biggers (7th Rd)
Edge
Starters: Jaelen Phillips, Bradley Chubb
Backups: Chop Robinson, Quinton Bell
Linebackers
Starters: Jordyn Brooks, Tyrel Dodson
Backups: Willie Gay, K.J. Britt
Safety
Starters: Ifeatu Melifonwu, Ashtyn Davis
Backups: Dante Trader (5th Rd), Elijah Campbell
Slot
Starter: Kader Kohou
Backups: Artie Burns
Outside CB
Starters: Jalen Ramsey, Storm Duck
Backups: Cam Smith, Jason Marshall Jr. (5th Rd)
Defense Breakdown
The Dolphins have problems on offense, but that’s nothing compared to the situation on defense.
This year, Miami, by most accounts, reached for Michigan defensive tackle Kenneth Grant with the 13th overall pick, which is especially unfortunate when you consider the fact the reason the Dolphins had such a gaping hole up front is due to the mismanagement that left them unable to re-sign Christian Wilkins last offseason. It’s the type of situation that can snowball easily in the NFL, and in Miami’s case, it certainly has.
That said, the Grant move certainly has upside; he will slot in next to Zach Seiler, who has consistently been an above-average player against the run and pass, and that interior duo could be flanked by one of the better three-man edge rotations in the NFL if Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips can get back healthy while Chop Robinson turns his flashes into more consistent play.
Unfortunately, much as I might like to throw on some teal-colored glasses, counting on two different edge rushers to rebound from severe knee injuries (Chubb missed all of 2024 after tearing the ACL, meniscus, and patellar tendon in his right knee, while Phillips tore his ACL in Week 4 coming off a torn Achilles the previous season) strikes me as optimistic to the point of foolishness, and while Robinson brings great quickness and burst out of his stance, he needs to add some power to his game if he is going to consistently rush the passer in the NFL; Robinson had some big-time flashes mid-season, but he more or less disappeared down the stretch.
To make matters worse, the back end of the defense profiles as one of the worst in the league. The inside linebacker tandem of Jordyn Brooks and Tyrel Dodson might work out fine, but neither player is going to change the course of the defense, and the back end is downright scary; as it stands, Ashtyn Davis and Ifeatu Melifonwu, who were better utilized as rotational, specialized pieces with their previous teams (NYJ and DET), are slated to start at safety, with the only candidate to unseat them Dante Trader Jr., a 5th round pick. Storm Duck is set to man one of the outside cornerback spots, and while Jalen Ramsey’s name is currently in the spot opposite him, it seems like that may be a temporary situation, and if it is, the Dolphins will get to watch Cam Smith battle with veteran journeyman Artie Burns and fifth-rounder Jason Marshall Jr. for that spot.
It wasn’t a thought I had before starting this piece, but despite the name recognition of the players on this defense, I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say this group is even worse than the crew Miami rolled out during the 2019 “Tank for Tua” season. That depth chart featured a rookie Christian Wilkins, an in-his-prime Xavien Howard at cornerback, and other quality pieces like veteran safety Reshad Jones and second-year linebacker Jerome Baker. As in 2019, Miami may find some diamonds in the rough - a rookie 5th rounder named Andrew Van Ginkel was also on that 2019 squad - but it speaks volumes that, in trying to put together a contender around Tua Tagovailoa, Chris Grier has somehow assembled a defense that looks even worse than a squad that was actively working to tank.
Overall Outlook
The football minds running the Dolphins clearly understood that something was wrong once we got to the 2025 offseason, but if we needed any more evidence that they don’t understand how they ended up in this position, we got it when Miami traded the 48th, 98th, and 135th picks in exchange for the 37th and 143rd picks, a move that allowed them to take Jonah Savaiinaea.
This is a question of process over players, and embracing uncertainty in the way that the NFL requires decision-makers to embrace uncertainty. It’s obviously more certain to trade for a proven player, and it probably feels better to take the higher-graded player at (one of twenty) positions of need, but that’s not how this league works.
I seriously doubt that a team like the Philadelphia Eagles doesn’t feel some apprehension when they move on from veterans in favor of younger players; heck, we could easily extend that statement to the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers, who have both moved away from marquee names with the hopes they can come out the other side on the backs of players nobody would recognize today. That’s the NFL.
Returning to the Dolphins example, the idea that a team with this many problems would give up a dice roll in the Top 100 because they are so certain that Savaiinaea will be a better pro than the eight offensive linemen who went off the board between the 48th and 88th picks is hubris in the extreme. All you have to do is look at last year’s draft: I don’t think many folks would take Patrick Paul (55th) over Baltimore’s Roger Rosengarten (62nd), and if the Raiders offered D.J. Glaze (77th) straight up for Washington’s Brandon Coleman (67th) or New England’s Caeden Wallace (68th), there’s a good chance the latter teams would make the swap.
Nobody is that good at foretelling the future of draft prospects, which is why teams need to consistently bring in new classes of talent to keep the roster stocked. The Dolphins gutted their organization of their most valuable picks year after year, passing on players in the draft to acquire veterans who signed top-of-the-market extensions, and now that those players are disgruntled/injured/on the downside of their careers, Miami has a gutted roster.
We’ll see how it all plays out, because as much as I might advocate for moving on from those veteran pieces to show there’s some long-term growth potential, a football braintrust desperate to keep their jobs might put more stock in maxing out their immediate wins, and if that’s the case, keeping Tyreek and Jalen may be the way to go.
If you threw out the trade up in this year’s draft, I might be more on board with the idea of the reset, but that trade happened, and as a result, I don’t think it really matters what the Dolphins do. It’s been a fun era - Mike McDaniel’s 2022 and 2023 offenses were spectacularly entertaining to watch, and pushed offensive scheme into some previously unknown areas - but it’s incredibly difficult to out-innovate the other 31 NFL coaching staffs year after year, and that well dried up for Miami in 2024.