The ESSENTIAL Football Show 2025 Cap Space: $25.4 million
2026 Cap Space: $139.0 million
2027 Cap Space: $216.3 million
2026 Draft Picks: Own Picks, Rounds 1-6
It played out differently on the scoreboard, but between the collapse against the Jacksonville Jaguars two years ago, and the debacle of a game against Houston, Justin Herbert’s playoff track record is particularly gut-wrenching.
There’s the take that the Chargers completely collapsed against Houston, but while things undoubtedly went off the rails in the second half, there’s also the fact that the Chargers were DOMINATING that game until a snap went over C.J. Stroud’s head late in the first half, an incredibly bizarre play that sparked the Texans and led to a second-half rally.
The first half was particularly frustrating, as miscues by the Chargers prevented them from building what should have been a significant lead. The offensive line had a rough day, Herbert missed some open receivers, and receivers had some critical drops. The team ultimately wound up looking frustrated, but while that certainly wasn’t their day, there’s reason to hope for a better outcome in 2025.
Quarterback
Starter: Justin Herbert
Backups: Taylor Heinicke, Trey Lance
Running Back
Starters: Omarion Hampton (1st Rd) / Najee Harris
Backups: Hassan Haskins, Kimani Vidal
Wide Receiver
Starters: Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Derius Davis
Backups: Tre Harris (2nd Rd), Mike Williams, KeAndre Lambert-Smith (5th Rd), Jalen Reagor
Tight End
Starters: Will Dissly
Backups: Tyler Conklin, Oronde Gadsden II (5th Rd)
Offensive Line
Starters: Rashawn Slater, Zion Johnson, Bradley Bozeman, Mekhi Becton, Joe Alt
Backups: Branson Taylor (6th Rd), Karsen Barnhart, Andre James, Jamaree Salyer, Trey Pipkins
Offense Overview
For a team that wants to base its identity on running the ball, the Chargers weren’t particularly efficient in 2024. There’s plenty of reason to think that could change in 2025.
The Chargers turned over their running back room, bringing in Najee Harris from the Steelers in free agency and adding Omarion Hampton with their first-round pick in the draft. Hampton is a big-time prospect with explosive traits who could lift the ceiling of this group, and while Harris doesn’t have the long speed to consistently put up explosive gains, he is a physical, durable back who has shown he can consistently handle a heavy workload, which is an asset in a seventeen-game season.
An arguably more important addition is bringing Mekhi Becton into the fold at right guard after the former first-round pick successfully transitioned to the position during a one-year stint in Philadelphia that resurrected his career. Becton is a work-in-progress in pass protection - the 6’7, 360 pound frame that was an asset on the edge is something of a liability in this area, as Becton had some problems with rushers getting into his frame last season - but in terms of displacing defenders in the run game, Becton is outstanding, and his presence should allow the Chargers line to generate significantly more movement on the interior.
The group around Becton ended the season on a down note, but there’s the talent to bounce back. Houston’s edge rushing duo of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson got the best of Los Angeles tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt in the playoff loss, but the tandem ultimately had a promising season. Assuming the Chargers commit to Slater on a top-of-the-market deal, which seems likely given their mentality and cap flexibility, Los Angeles will definitely need that tandem to play better than they did, but I don’t think it’s worth throwing out their entire season because they had rough days against elite competition. Los Angeles is set to bring back Zion Johnson and Bradley Bozeman at left guard and center, and they’ve got depth in center Andre James and the versatile tandem of Jamaree Salyer and Trey Pipkins, who have a lot of combined snaps at both the guard and tackle positions.
If everything clicks in the running game, it should line up as another strong season for Justin Herbert, who is hopefully getting an upgraded weapon in second-round pick Tre Harris. The Chargers hit on last year’s second-rounder, Ladd McConkey, in a big way, and if Harris can hit the ground running, this offense could be humming. The Chargers still have Quentin Johnston in place, whose size and straight-line speed should allow him to carve out a role, even if it’s not the role you might expect from a former first-round pick, and they also brought back Mike Williams, who has established chemistry with Justin Herbert and is a season further removed from the ACL tear that ended his final season with the Chargers in 2023.
The Chargers might not have the overwhelming skill talent of a team like the Eagles or Bengals, but ultimately, this team looks like it made upgrades that are entirely consistent with the identity of who they want to be on offense, and health-willing, it would be a surprise if Justin Herbert and company aren’t an improved version of the 2024 product.
Defensive Tackle
Starters: Teair Tart, Otito Ogbonnia, Da’Shawn Hand
Backups: Jamaree Caldwell (3rd Rd), Naquan Jones, Justin Eboigbe, Scott Matlock, Chris Hinton
Edge
Starters: Khalil Mack, Tuli Tuipulotu
Backups: Bud Dupree, Kyle Kennard (4th Rd)
Linebackers
Starters: Daiyan Henley, Denzel Perryman
Backups: Junior Colson, Troy Dye, Del’Shawn Phillips
Safety
Starters: Derwin James, Alohi Gilman
Backups: Tony Jefferson, Elijah Molden, RJ Mickens (6th Rd)
Slot
Starter: Tarheeb Still
Backups: Ja’Sir Taylor
Outside CB
Starters: Cam Hart, Donte Jackson
Backups: Benjamin St-Juste, Deane Leonard, Trikweze Bridges (7th Rd)
Defense Overview
The Chargers more or less stood pat on the defensive side, replacing one journeyman veteran cornerback (Kristian Fulton) with another (Donte Jackson) and adding some depth on the defensive line with 3rd round pick Jamaree Caldwell and veteran rotational pieces Da’Sahwn Hand and Naquan Jones, but that might work out all right, given how difficult this defense was to play against in 2024.
This year’s unit starts around the defensive tackle of Otito Ogbonnia and Teair Tart up front; Ogbonnia showed significant improvement last season, doing a terrific job holding up in a defense that asks a LOT of its defensive tackles in the run game, and when engaged, Tart is one of the true freaks in the NFL, capable of generating enough power to completely overwhelm offensive linemen. Like most of the positions in their front, the Chargers will use a heavy rotation, and if all goes well, the rookie Caldwell will play a significant role in that rotation.
Like the defensive tackle spot, the Chargers are deep on the edge; he was something of a forgotten name after his time in Tennessee, but I thought Bud Dupree had a really solid season last year, bringing the type of run/pass balance necessary for this defense to live out of its nickel look. They also have Khalil Mack back after a quality campaign, and a solid complement in Tuli Tuipulotu, who is a bit more bendy than the heavy-handed Mack and Dupree.
The linebacker room also runs at least three deep, with the younger tandem of Daiyan Henley (2023 3rd round) and Junior Colson (2024 3rd round) set to start with veteran Denzel Perryman in reserve. Henley played over 90% of the snaps last season, but both Colson and Perryman dealt with injuries, so the depth is a good thing to have in place.
Derwin James enjoyed a bounceback year under head coach Jim Harbaugh, and forms a strong safety tandem with Alohi Gilman, but it’s the corner tandem of Cam Hart and Tarheeb Still, a pair of 5th round picks from 2024, that could really help this defense take off. Hart and Still are both playmakers at a position where players are often content to sit back and protect against the big play, and Still’s ability to play in the slot or outside lends a lot of flexibility in the back end. Progress is not always linear, and Hart needs to be more consistently available after dealing with injuries last season, but if all goes well, the Hart-Still picks could be the sort of hits that allow the Chargers to supercharge the roster around two quality cornerbacks playing on fifth-round salaries.
Overall Outlook
The AFC is set to be loaded in 2025, and with Pete Carroll taking over as head coach in Las Vegas, the Raiders are likely to be a much tougher out in 2025, which could make an AFC West that saw three of its members make the 2024 playoffs the best division in football next season.
It’s a challenging path to navigate, but Jim Harbaugh and general manager Joe Hortiz have a clear vision for how they want to build around quarterback Justin Herbert, and while the loss to the Texans was a bitter way to end it, it seems like things are proceeding to plan in the grand scheme of things. The NFL is unpredictable, and some team is going to have an unexpected setback, but on paper, there’s no reason the Chargers shouldn’t take a step forward in 2025 as Harbaugh and Hortiz’s plan for this team takes shape.