The ESSENTIAL Football Show 2025 Cap Space: 9.4 million
2026 Cap Space: - $9.4 million (minus)
2027 Cap Space: $131.8 million
2026 Draft Picks: Own Picks, Rounds 1-5, plus Rd 7 comp
Regardless of the outcome, there were going to be pivotal moves ahead for the Chiefs, but it would have been much better to face their current roster building challenges with a third straight Super Bowl to close out a window sparked by their 2021 and 2022 draft classes.
The coming issues were evident from a ways out, but at this time last offseason, there was still the hope that the Chiefs could resolve their annual issues at the left tackle spot in the draft, and that by solidifying that spot, they could open up the resources to keep the interior offensive line of left guard Joe Thuney, center Creed Humphrey, and right guard Trey Smith, which has been the most dangerous “weapon” on this offense in the post-Tyreek Hill era.
Given the extension Thuney would have wanted entering the final year of his deal, this might not have been feasible, but it would have at least been something to talk about if their second-round pick, Kingsley Suamataia, had established himself as a quality starter at left tackle, but that experiment went the opposite way.
The Chiefs are still going to be in the mix as long as Patrick Mahomes is at quarterback, but this roster has been shedding defensive talent for the past two offseasons (cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, safety Justin Reid) and have not had a particularly high hit rate in the past two drafts. Kansas City could still wind up being a Super Bowl contender, but there’s no question that this roster needs an injection of youth, and if the highly risky first-round selection of Josh Simmons, a left tackle out of Ohio State who would have gone much higher were it not for a season-ending knee injury, doesn’t work out, the Chiefs could find it difficult to hold off the pack in 2025.
Quarterback
Starter: Patrick Mahomes
Backups: Gardner Minshew, Bailey Zappe
Running Back
Starters: Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt
Backups: Elijah Mitchell, Carson Steele, Brashard Smith (7th Rd)
Wide Receiver
Starters: Rashee Rice (knee), Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown
Backups: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jalen Royals (4th Rd), Nikko Remigio, Skyy Moore, Justyn Ross
Tight End
Starters: Travis Kelce
Backups: Noah Gray, Jared Wiley
Offensive Line
Starters: Jaylon Moore, Kingsley Suamataia, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Jawaan Taylor
Backups: Josh Simmons (1st Rd, knee), Mike Caliendo, Wanya Morris
Offense Overview
There is an assumption that Suamataia can be salvaged by kicking him inside to left guard, but I’m skeptical on that front for two reasons. First, Suamataia did play left guard in Week 18 against Denver, and while it was with other backups from Kanasas City, Suamataia didn’t do anything to distinguish himself, or to suggest his general lack of feel for hand striking and spacing got any better inside. Second, Mike Caliendo, who filled in at left guard when Thuney kicked out to tackle, played below-average when he was out there, and the Kansas City coaching staff didn’t bother rotating Suamataia in during the playoffs, despite the fact he was working at the position, as we saw in Week 18.
It’s very possible that the Chiefs completely whiffed on 2023 third-rounder Wanya Morris and 2024 second-rounder Suamataia, which makes the Simmons pick pivotal. This situation has already caused problems, because on top of those two mid-round swings, the Chiefs also had to commit a decent amount of money to Jaylon Moore in free agency, which seems like a highly risky move given that Moore backed up Trent Williams for three years, and when given the chance to fill in long-term in San Francisco, went down with a season-ending quad injury during his fifth start of the season.
Maybe Moore can kick inside if Simmons is a hit - or he’s just relatively expensive insurance as a swing tackle - but unless the rookie impresses, it’s hard to see how this line isn’t worse in 2025. Center Creed Humphrey and right guard Trey Smith are elite building blocks, and Jawaan Taylor is solid enough no the right side, but there’s been a decent investment in the left side and no sure things to come out of it.
If the offensive line isn’t able to sort things out, then Rashee Rice’s return to health becomes all that more important. The Chiefs found a couple of defensive role players in their 2023 Draft, but the two players who have shown the most are the receiver duo of Rice and 2024 1st rounder Xavier Worthy. Kansas City will also hope to have Hollywood Brown healthy next season, and Travis Kelce is still finding ways to contribute, but that group was out there down the stretch, and they were fairly underwhelming; if they get the version of Rice that we saw early in the 2024 season, it kicks everyone down a slot in the pecking order and allows each of them to fill a role while Rice handles lead receiver duties.
The Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes, and general manager Brett Veach and head coach Andy Reid haven’t forgotten how to evaluate talent; even the best NFL organizations goes on cold streaks. Even so, the Chiefs need to get hot again soon, because the longer they have to keep attempting to solve this left tackle issue, the longer the rest of the roster is going to suffer.
Defensive Tackle
Starters: Chris Jones, Mike Pennel
Backups: Omarr Norman-Lott (2nd Rd), Jerry Tillery
Edge
Starters: George Karlaftis, Mike Danna
Backups: Charles Omenihu, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Malik Herring, Ashton Gillotte (3rd Rd)
Linebackers
Starters: Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill
Backups: Leo Chenal, Cam Jones, Jeffrey Bassa (5th Rd)
Safety
Starters: Bryan Cook, Jaden Hicks
Backups: Mike Edwards, Deon Bush
Slot
Starter: Chamarri Conner
Backups: Chris Roland-Wallace
Outside CB
Starters: Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson
Backups: Kristian Fulton, Joshua Williams, Nohl Williams (3rd Rd), Nazeeh Johnson
Defense Overview
It’s an incredibly difficult task to maintain an NFL-best defense, and the recent attrition in Kansas City is a perfect example of why.
The Chiefs have tried to backstop their losses. They’ve spent draft capital to replace the players heading out the door, but there’s always uncertainty there, and with former rookie-contract contributors graduating to market-value contracts, there’s not much in the way of free dollars to supplement the defense in free agency.
It’s easy to say that Kansas City needs more out of former first-rounders like George Karlaftis or Felix Anudike-Uzomah, but it looks more like Karlaftis is a good starter who has some plus games, while Anudike-Uzomah is a complementary piece who will stick in the NFL, but not as a standout.
If the Chiefs are going to maintain their standard, the help likely needs to come from the rookie class or their veteran corners. The case for the rookies is obvious; if the class of defensive tackle Omarr Norman-Lott (2nd Rd), edge Ashton Gillotte (3rd Rd), cornerback Nohl Williams (3rd Rd), and linebacker Jeffrey Bassa (5th Rd) exceeds expectations and yields multiple starters who raise the unit’s overall talent level, Kansas City could have the foundation for another couple of championship runs. The veteran corner note is more of a one-year solution, but I thought Jaylen Watson was playing really good ball on the outside before his season was interrupted by a broken ankle, and while he wasn’t nearly as good when he came back, there’s the chance an offseason of rehab gets him back to an above-average level. The Chiefs also brought in Kristian Fulton on a one-year deal, and while it might be the best-case scenario for Watson and Nohl Williams to beat him out, the hope would be that Watson and Fulton play well enough to give the Chiefs more flexibility to play their elite piece, Trent McDuffie, in the slot on a more regular basis. McDuffie can ball inside or out, but he’s one of the league’s best in coverage in the slot, and as we saw last year, it’s better to use safety Chamarri Conner and the “big nickel” package more selectively; as much fun as Conner is flying around, you can get after him when he’s asked to line up and cover in clear passing situations. Assuming the corner room has a bit more success behind McDuffie, Conner would also be available as an option for the safety spot next to Bryan Cook, though 2024 4th-rounder Jaden Hicks may be the front-runner after taking on a larger role down the stretch.
Kansas City doesn’t need all of their bets to turn up, but they definitely need to get Chris Jones, who remains among the league’s elite defensive tackles but is on the wrong side of 30, more support if the defense is going to continue to be what it has been. The linebacker room is in good shape with Nick Bolton locked up long-term and both Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal back for 2025, but while I’ve never seen a great defense that can’t control the middle of the field, I’ve certainly seen a lot of good middle-of-the-field defenders go to waste when defenses can’t cover outside or rush the passer.
Overall Outlook
The Chiefs were one game away from three straight Super Bowl wins, and all the positives about this organization shouldn’t get lost in the shuffle, but that doesn’t change the fact they are in definite need of a re-boot.
Kansas City has been pretty remarkable in their ability to transition seamlessly from their first championship window - call it the Offensive Fireworks with Tyreek era - to their second, which saw them build championship teams around the interior offensive line and the defense.
We’ll see if there’s a dry spell of a year or two, or an immediate pivot, but when you think back to the Patriots dynasty, you can recall all the distinct flavors of teams they put around Tom Brady, whether that was the run-heavy days with Corey Dillon, the 11 personnel run with Randy Moss, or the tight-end heavy era with Rob Gronkowski. However it takes shape, teams drafting at the bottom of the first round year after year need to be flexible in adapting to whatever talent they find themselves with, and the Chiefs have done a pretty darn good job of that with Mahomes, considering that the quarterback’s worst career finish as a starter is still getting to overtime of the AFC Championship game.
It would be shocking to see the Chiefs be anything but competitive, but whether or not they are a favorite for the Super Bowl remains to be seen. If 2025 is any sort of down year, I’d bet on Kansas City to bounce right back, but maintaining a Super Bowl contender is tough, and when I go through this depth chart right now, there’s not nearly as much “purple” (plus/impact) and “blue” (elite) as there has been in recent years.