The ESSENTIAL Football Show 2025 Cap Space: $18.2 million
2026 Cap Space: $34.2 million
2027 Cap Space: $87.9 million
2026 Draft Picks: Own Picks, Rounds 2-5, 7, plus DET Rd 3 (x2), MIN Rd 5, SEA Rd 6, LAR Rd 7, DET Rd 7
You have to give credit to the Jaguars for making Draft Night exciting; with their decision to trade up to draft reigning Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter with the second overall pick, general manager James Gladstone and head coach Liam Coen put their stamp on this team in a very big way - and that’s to say nothing of Gladstone’s speech on what Hunter will bring to the table.
Maybe this all works out - my favorite receiver in the NFL plays for this team, so I’ve definitely got a watching interest - but after listening to Gladstone run through that speech again, and looking at the state of the Jaguars roster, I think it’s a lot more likely that this will go down as another memorable folly in Duval than a fully realized vision of Urban Meyer’s “city on the hill.”
It was just a few years ago that we had Meyer preaching to us that the NFL had it all wrong with free agency; now we have someone else in Jacksonville telling us that Travis Hunter is going to make us reimagine what’s possible in football by doing something that used to be commonplace in the NFL, and that is still regularly done at the high school level.
To be clear, I love everything about Travis Hunter and his story. It was remarkable to see him build his body to the point that he was able to put up the Iron Man Heisman Trophy season he did, and by all accounts, everything about him as an NFL prospect is spectacular.
My problem is this bizarre assumption that Jacksonville is getting two first-round picks for the price of one, because if I were drafting Travis Hunter, I wouldn’t make that bet. I’d be happy to let him try, but to have that as an expectation, rather than gravy on top of a more reasonable projection for a first year NFL player, strikes me as insane.
I live in Colorado, so perhaps this is a bit more memorable for me, but I’m old enough to recall the CU-CSU game two years ago, when Deion and company narrowly escaped an embarrassing loss to a Mountain West program after Hunter was knocked out of the game on a hit that caused him to miss three games.
For those of you who remember that hit, it was a cheap-shot out of bounds, but that’s not really the point; my point is that you don’t have to look back very far to see that Travis Hunter is not invincible, so it seems downright bizarre to take it for granted that he is going to play two ways in a league where the guys hitting him are way bigger, way faster, and way stronger than ol’ boy from the Colorado State Rammies.
I’m cheering for Hunter. It would be incredible if he can pull this off, but the problem is that there’s a lot of positions to fill on an NFL roster, and this roster has a lot of issues. The offensive line has a real chance to be the worst in the NFL, the skill players outside of Brian Thomas Jr. don’t inspire a whole lot of confidence, and the defense has far more questions than answers.
They’ve got that, and they’ve got one guy who’s apparently going to change the franchise by being an All-Pro on both sides of the ball, transforming our collective belief in what’s possible as a species by wearing some funny clothes and throwing a ball around a field with other grown men.
No sweat, right?
Quarterback
Starter: Trevor Lawrence
Backups: Nick Mullens, John Wolford
Running Back
Starters: Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby
Backups: Bhayshul Tuten (4th Rd), Keilan Robinson
Wide Receiver
Starters: Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Parker Washington
Backups: Dyami Brown
Tight End
Starters: Brenton Strange, Johnny Mundt
Backups: Hunter Long
Offensive Line
Starters: Walker Little, Ezra Cleveland, Rob Hainsey, Patrick Mekari, Anton Harrison
Backups: Chuma Edoga, Fred Johnson, Luke Fortner, Cole Van Lanen
Offense Overview
Let’s start with the good.
Brian Thomas Jr. is an absolute stud. For my money, his play already puts him in the discussion as the best receiver in the NFL, and the stats should follow if Trevor Lawrence is healthy in his second season.
It started in Week One, when Thomas left Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey in the dust on an inside release to Ramsey’s press on a post route, and it just got better. In that Dolphins game, Thomas showed nuance selling second-level “option-out-stop” routes that was at odds with his draft profile as a “raw” receiver; the nuance Thomas showed selling those routes looked pretty damn good to me. In short, he’s a 6’4, 4.2 receiver who plays the position with nuance, showing a good understanding of how to use his stem to create separation in the course of his routes.
There were times the quarterback play let him down, particularly when it was Mac Jones targeting him downfield, but Thomas dominated throughout the season. His second matchup with Derek Stingley Jr. saw him turn Houston’s All-Pro corner inside out the same way he twisted Ramsey up in Week One, which underscored the point that regardless of the competition, or quality of the player throwing him the ball, Thomas is going to shine.
As to the guy throwing it, it will be good to have Trevor Lawrence back, particularly for the deep balls. The discussion around Lawrence has always been colored by his pre-draft hype - there’s no disputing that Lawrence has the best prospect resume of all time - but while his NFL tape has shown he’s not quite in the same group as the Josh Allens and Justin Herberts physically, this is still an incredibly gifted player with the ability to make all the throws and some really good games to his name.
The question is whether they’ve done enough around him to get this cranking. If Hunter is a full-time receiver, it would go a long way - his body type would provide an interesting contrast to Thomas - and there are several quality complementary pieces aboard in receiver Parker Washington and tight end Brenton Strange, who both put up some good film after taking on larger roles when some starters were injured last year, and Dyami Brown, who adds some deep speed at receiver after a relative breakout season in Washington. Their top two backs, Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby, are injury-prone, but they’ve also been productive in stretches, with Bigsby showing off solid tackle-breaking ability in his second campaign.
That still leaves the line, and unfortunately, that’s looking fairly concerning. Patrick Mekari comes over from Baltimore and provides valuable versatility, but I had him as the Raven’s 5th-best starting lineman last season, and Rob Hainsey, who is slated to start at center, was a backup for Tampa Bay last season. The incumbents aren’t much better; Anton Harrison strikes me as a “solid enough” type at tackle when things are going right, as he lacks the type of mobility or overwhelming strength that would allow him to be a standout at the position, and Walker Little shouldn’t be a starter. I’m similarly lukewarm on left guard Ezra Cleveland; he’s a fine piece to have at $8 million per year, but as that number indicates, he should be the 4th or 5th-best player on a good offensive line, and he might be the best of the bunch in Jacksonville.
Liam Coen’s Tampa Bay offense was a lot of fun, but their offensive line was one of the best in the NFL, and while that wasn’t clear before the 2024 season, there was also a LOT more invested in Tampa’s line; parallels could be drawn between Anton Harrison and Luke Goedeke, or Cleveland and Ben Bredeson, but the Jags don’t have a Tristan Wirfs, and they don’t have the potential upside the Bucs had in center Graham Barton, their 2024 1st-round pick, or right guard Cody Mauch, a 2023 3rd-rounder from North Dakota State who had a very clear path to developing into the big mauler he became for Tampa last year.
I’m still going to be excited to see Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas lined up together; it’s just a very muted feeling relative to draft night. I’m firmly rooted in the idea that the NFL starts and ends with the big guys, and I feel like the Jaguars are hoping to be mediocre there, with the potential to be much worse.
Defensive Tackle
Starters: DaVon Hamilton, Arik Armstead
Backups: Maason Smith, Jordan Jefferson, Tyler Lacy
Edge
Starters: Josh Hines-Allen, Travon Walker
Backups: Emmanuel Ogbah, Myles Cole
Linebackers
Starters: Foyesade Oluokun, Devin Lloyd
Backups: Chad Muma, Ventrell Miller, Jack Kiser (4th Rd), Jalen McLeod (6th Rd)
Safety
Starters: Darnell Savage, Antonio Johnson
Backups: Eric Murray, Caleb Ransaw (3rd Rd), Rayuan Lane (6th Rd), Andrew Wingard
Slot
Starter: Jourdan Lewis
Backups: Christian Braswell
Outside CB
Starters: Tyson Campbell, Travis Hunter
Backups: Montaric Brown, Jarrian Jones, Zech McPhearson
Defense Overview
Much like the offense, Jacksonville’s defensive prospects will depend heavily on Travis Hunter’s ability to bolster the unit.
The line is much better on this side of the ball; Travon Walker may not be the purest pass rusher, and the draft debate will always be there for him, but the former 1st overall pick is a presence against the run and makes an impact as a pass rusher, while his counterpart, Josh Hines-Allen, continues to be one of the smoother technicians out on the edge and provides the pass rush flare that Walker lacks. The Jaguars also have a couple of X-factors up front; Arik Armstead is expected to play more on the inside after playing a limited number of snaps in his first season with the Jags, and Maason Smith, their 2nd round pick from 2024, showed some promise as an interior defender with good length and some wiggle.
The group behind them is not as strong. Foyesade Oluokun brings good speed to the linebacker level, but doesn’t rise to the level of a true difference-maker, and the Jags have elected not to pick up the 5th-year option on Devin Lloyd, whose struggles to consistently recognize plays likely played a role in the decision not to exercise the option.
The secondary will look different, with Andre Cisco swapped out for free-agent Eric Murray at one safety spot, and another free-agent addition, Jourdan Lewis, taking over in the slot. Tyson Campbell is a strong presence at one outside corner spot, but unless it’s Travis Hunter playing across from him, the Jags will likely be scrambling for options again.
Overseeing all this will be Anthony Campanile, who will be in his first year as a defensive coordinator. Given the high-end talent on this unit, and the general volatility of NFL defenses, this group feels like they could wind up anywhere from 8th to 28th in overall defense by the time it’s all over.
Overall Outlook
There’s a couple of new faces in Jacksonville, but the old guard remains in place, and while it’s Liam Coen and James Gladstone grabbing headlines with their “DUUVAL” chants and inspiring speeches, there’s also certain aspects of this that still feel like a Tony and Shad Khan production.
The obvious one to point to is the process that led to Coen and Gladstone winding up with their respective jobs, a saga that included Shad Khan saying, in a press conference with Trent Baalke, the general manager he had (at that date) elected to keep, that he would be open to the idea of firing Baalke if a head coach candidate presented that idea.
Somehow, it went far beyond an awkward moment, with Khan firing Baalke in the bizarre series of events that ended with Liam Coen as the head coach, then keeping Baalke’s assistant GM, Ethan Waugh, to help bridge the turnover in the front office, as January is not exactly the ideal month to turn over your scouting staff.
Tony and Shad’s fingerprints are also all over the Patrick Mekari and Jourdan Lewis deals; regardless of who identified those particular players, they are signed to the familiar “3 on paper, out after 2” contract the Jaguars tend to sign, seemingly with the expectation that the deals will (once again) not work as planned and they will (once again) be cutting those players two years in. Jacksonville did buck convention by cutting Gabe Davis one year into his three-year deal instead of two, but I’m not sure that’s exactly the sort of change Jags fans are looking for.
As to the current show? It’s fun, it’s exciting, and maybe there’s some good days ahead; after all, there’s some very talented players here, and the AFC South is not exactly a gauntlet. Even if the Houston Texans rebound and run away with the division, the Jaguars could still make a push as a Wild Card team.
The problem is that even when the Jags have a good season, they seem unable to build on it in any sort of positive direction. So I’ll be cheering for BT7 to take the next step, and for the Travis Hunter Show to be all it can be… but if the show gets canceled an hour before showtime, I think I’ll be less than stunned.