The ESSENTIAL Football Show 2025 Cap Space: $4.3 million
2026 Cap Space: $28.1 million
2027 Cap Space: $182.0 million
2026 Draft Picks: Own Picks, Rounds 1-2, 4, 7; plus WSH Rd 2, NYG Rd 3, WSH Rd 4, PHI Rd 6, SF Rd 7
The AFC South title aside, it’s easy to look back and say the season never really came together for the Houston Texans.
The position group where this hit hardest was the wide receiver room, where all the discussion of how Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell would fit together was for nothing, as Collins went down early in their Week 5 game against Buffalo and missed the next 5 games, while Diggs and Dell suffered season-ending knee injuries before they got the full band back together.
Even if they had all three of their receivers, the Texans would have had issues, because for whatever reason, the pieces on their offensive line just never fit together. It wasn’t for lack of investment, but the group never came together, and it’s the primary reason that the Texans are moving on to a new offensive coordinator and offensive line coach.
Those aspects need to get fixed, but there’s also a whole lot of positive to point to, whether you’re talking up the quarterback, or a defense that could be the best in the NFL in 2025.
Quarterback
Starter: C.J. Stroud
Backups: Davis Mills, Graham Mertz (6th Rd)
Running Back
Starters: Joe Mixon
Backups: Dameon Pierce, Woody Marks (4th Rd), Dare Ogunbowale
Wide Receiver
Starters: Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, John Metchie
Backups: Jayden Higgins (2nd Rd), Jaylin Noel (3rd Rd), Justin Watson, Braxton Berrios, Xavier Hutchinson, Tank Dell (leg)
Tight End
Starters: Dalton Schultz
Backups: Brevin Jordan, Cade Stover, Irv Smith Jr.
Offensive Line
Starters: Cam Robinson, Tytus Howard, Jarrett Patterson, Juice Scruggs, Blake Fisher
Backups: Aireontae Ersery (2nd Rd), Laken Tomlinson, Ed Ingram, Trent Brown (knee)
Offense Overview
C.J. Stroud didn’t put himself in the MVP discussion last season, and 2024 was something of a down season by the standard he set in 2023, but in terms of long-term trajectory, my optimism for Stroud hasn’t changed. The biggest criticism of Stroud’s game relative to his rookie campaign is that he wasn’t as consistently accurate, particularly in the underneath game, but on the positive side, Stroud continued to make big-time throws on a regular basis, with “wow” moments popping up even in the bad games. We’ve seen that he can be more consistent when the group around him is better, and Stroud is still a young player, so expectations should remain high headed into 2025.
There won’t be nearly as much discussion about target shares in Houston moving forward, because you can start with Nico Collins getting the lion’s share of the work after his breakout 2024 season. The 6’4, 220 Collins is one of the elite receivers in the NFL - if asked to stack a top 5 for 2025, I’d probably go Ja’Marr Chase, Nico Collins, Brian Thomas, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown - and he can make plays at every level of the field. Collins is capable of taking a slant or a screen to the house, and he’s as adept at using his long strides to create space on intermediate and deep routes.
The rest of the group should work as complementary targets; the Texans added Christian Kirk in free agency along with two rookies, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, in the second and third rounds of the draft to go along with John Metchie. Houston also has Dalton Schultz as a solid option at tight end, so they don’t need the rookie duo to make an impact right out of the gate, but given that Tank Dell’s return to form seems iffy after he suffered a second consecutive season-ending lower body injury, the Texans will likely need something from their rookie duo before it’s all said and done. The Texans also added to the running back room with fourth round pick Woody Marks, who will compete with Dameon Pierce for carries behind lead back Joe Mixon.
The offensive line no longer features Laremy Tunsil at left tackle after their longtime cornerstone was traded to Washington; veteran Cam Robinson, who was an adequate player in Jacksonville before struggling after a trade to Minnesota, will likely get the first crack at that spot, though second-round pick Aireontae Ersery will likely get a shot at the job at some point. Blake Fisher will start at right tackle - they need to get more out of the 2024 second-rounder than they did during his rookie season, particularly in pass protection - and Tytus Howard will move inside to guard, another questionable move, given that Howard has had significant struggles during some of the stretches that he’s kicked in side. Jarrett Patterson and Juice Scruggs are set to return at center and right guard, though there will likely be competition for those spots in camp after the additions of Laken Tomlinson and Ed Ingram, who were mediocre and benched, respectively, at their last stops, and if a 32-year-old Trent Brown suddenly recaptures his form after looking badly out of shape before he suffered a season-ending injury in Cincinnati last year, there could be a dark horse in the tackle competition, though I’d stick that under the “long shots” header.
Given the modest personnel moves, head coach DeMeco Ryans is putting a lot of stock in Nick Caley and Cole Popovich, his new offensive coordinator and offensive line coach, turning this thing around. That could certainly go a long way, as communication issues caused a lot of the unit’s problems, but I also wonder what they’re going to do if it turns out that none of their four (five if you count Tytus Howard) options at offensive tackle can reliably pass protect in the dropback game.
Defensive Tackle
Starters: Denico Autry, Tim Settle
Backups: Sheldon Rankins, Foley Fatukasi, Mario Edwards, Kurt Hinish, Tommy Togiai, Kyonte Hamilton (7th Rd)
Edge
Starters: Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson Jr.
Backups: Derek Barnett, Darrell Taylor
Linebackers
Starters: Azeez Al-Shaair, Henry To’oTo’o
Backups: Christian Harris, E.J. Speed, Nick Niemann
Safety
Starters: Calen Bullock, C.J. Gardner Johnson
Backups: Jimmie Ward, M.J. Stewart, Jaylen Reed (6th Rd)
Slot
Starter: Jalen Pitre
Backups: Jaylin Smith (3rd Rd)
Outside CB
Starters: Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter
Backups: Ronald Darby, Tremon Smith
Defense Overview
The Texans defense is a blast to watch, and they should be that much more fun with the addition of C.J. Gardner-Johnson at safety.
It starts up front, where the Texans have a strong case as the best pass-rushing group in the NFL. Danielle Hunter is a no-doubt blue chip pass rusher on the edge, and if the pass rush aspect of Will Anderson’s power-based game hasn’t quite reached that peak, he’s not far behind. Throw in Denico Autry, who is a clear “plus” player on the interior, and the wiggle that Tim Settle showed in what was by far his best season as a pro, and you’ve got an intriguing foursome, and that’s without factoring in whatever Sheldon Rankins will bring as he returns to the Texans, who he posted six sacks for in 2023, after one year in Cincinnati.
As dominant as that group could be, the back end might give them a run for their money in 2025; Derek Stingley is coming off a 1st Team All-Pro season, and Kamari Lassiter emerged as a reliable presence at the corner spot opposite him. With C.J. Gardner-Johnson in the mix at safety next to Calen Bullock, who showed promise as a free safety with a nose for the ball, and Jalen Pitre in the slot, this sould be one of the better secondaries in the league.
The Texans don’t have a blue-chip player at linebacker, but Azeez Al-Shaair, Henry To’oTo’o, and Christian Harris were a good group last season, and the addition of E.J. Speed from the division-rival Colts only adds to the competition.
If Houston’s defense can hit the ground running this season, they have a chance to be something special. They already gave the Chargers and Chiefs fits during last year’s playoffs, so I don’t think this is exactly a secret, but with so many young players, and a key piece (Autry) suspended to start last year, I don’t think we fully appreciated exactly how good this defense had become.
Overall Outlook
Like the other teams in this range, the Texans have some questions to answer; everyone’s questions are a little bit different, but the clearest parallel to Houston’s offensive line approach is probably Green Bay’s defensive line strategy. Like the Texans, the Packers are looking to address the issues they had on the defensive line with a coaching shift rather than a wholesale personnel shift. Similar to Green Bay, Houston had made significant investments in that position group - they just weren’t getting results - and the history of the league has more than a few examples of a coaching shakeup yielding very different results from a position group, a side of the ball, or even an entire team.
Despite those questions, if we’re looking at core players to build around for the next three years, I’m not complaining about having C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson, and Derek Stingley as my five building blocks. This team has blue chip players at blue chip positions, and while they need some of the surrounding factors to break a little bit better, the Texans are arguably in as good of shape as anyone when it comes to getting the quarterback AND the elite position players at the same time.