The ESSENTIAL Football Show 2025 Cap Space: $4.1 million
2026 Cap Space: $29.9 million
2027 Cap Space: $149.3 million
2026 Draft Picks: Own Picks, Rounds 2-4, 6-7
Terry Fontenot’s roster-building process in Atlanta has been downright fascinating.
First, the general manager, then working with head coach Arthur Smith, wasted a year on a quarterback they didn’t want long-term (Matt Ryan) rather than eating the dead cap hit and moving directly into their era of Falcons football.
Given what they did at the position the next two years, this doesn’t seem like much of an ask; cutting Ryan would have caused a cap crunch in the moment, but the rotating cast of starters Atlanta rolled out for the next two seasons - Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke - weren’t exactly breaking the bank.
For some reason, playing a bunch of backup quarterbacks didn’t work out particularly well, so the Falcons fired Smith, brought in Raheem Morris as head coach, and evidently decided they would never be left without a quarterback again, pouring a huge amount of resources into signing Kirk Cousins to a massive contract and drafting Michael Penix Jr. with the 8th overall pick.
It’s true that the Falcons got their quarterback in this process, but it’s an awfully complicated way to get there. First off, I seriously doubt that Penix, who flashed BIG-TIME arm talent, handled himself from the drop, and improved during his time as the starter, would have crumbled if he’d been asked to start Week 1. Second, this bizarre idea that Cousins, who was coming off a torn Achilles in his late-thirties, was going to make the Falcons competitive out of the gate, was seriously misguided; it would have been reasonable to expect Cousins to ramp up as the season went on, and gotten somewhere close to full strength for the playoffs, but they needed a roster around him, and they didn’t have one.
There’s no question that Kirk Cousins threw a handful of horrendous passes in his final two games against Minnesota and Las Vegas, but in reviewing that film, I felt like he was the scapegoat for Atlanta’s struggles as a roster; the defense surrendered 42 points to Sam Darnold and the Vikings, and Cousins actually kept pace for a good chunk of that game before a dropped fourth down and a pair of ugly interceptions derailed them, and in the Raiders game the next week, the offense was struggling less with moving the ball and more with not shooting themselves in the foot with untimely penalties and pass protection breakdowns.
It was still the right decision to move to Penix, because it might have been the right decision to start him out of the gate, but blaming Cousins for the Ls Atlanta was racking up doesn’t fix the rest of the roster, which brings us to Fontenot’s latest decision.
Lacking resources to dramatically upgrade the defense in this roster-building cycle, the Falcons decided to pounce when edge rusher James Pearce Jr., the player they would have selected with their first-round pick had Jalon Walker not been available, slid down the board. Fontenot decided to send his 2025 1st rounder to the Rams for the right to go up and grab Pearce.
The move would be one thing if the Falcons were a player away, but that’s almost never the case in the NFL, and it certainly isn’t the case for a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in four seasons with Fontenot at the helm. Unless the Falcons win the Super Bowl this season, they’re going to be back in a bad spot next offseason, because even if they win the NFC South, the question will be about “what’s next”, and because of the huge splurges they’ve made the past two offseasons, there will be very limited resources to upgrade, which, if the current pattern holds, could mean once again selling off future assets at questionable prices.
It would be one thing if this process had left the Falcons with a stacked roster. But that’s not Atlanta’s situation.
Quarterback
Starter: Michael Penix Jr.
Backups: Kirk Cousins, Easton Stick
Running Back
Starters: Bijan Robinson
Backups: Tyler Allgeier, Jase McClellan
Wide Receiver
Starters: Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud
Backups: Casey Washington, KhaDarel Hodge, Chris Blair
Tight End
Starters: Kyle Pitts, Charlie Woerner
Backups: Teagan Quitoriano, Feleipe Franks
Offensive Line
Starters: Jake Matthews, Matthew Bergeron, Ryan Neuzil, Chris Lindstrom, Kaleb McGary
Backups: Storm Norton, Elijah Wilkinson, Jovaughn Gwyn, Kyle Hinton, Brandon Parker, Jack Nelson (7th Rd)
Offense Overview
Let’s start with the positives, because whatever the overall state of the roster, this Atlanta offense should be a blast to watch.
Whether this starts with Michael Penix or running back Bijan Robinson is up to you, but either way, Atlanta’s offense features two extremely exciting players at these positions. Penix has one of the stronger arms in the NFL, and he’s not afraid to turn it loose; early on, I worried a bit about the lack of varied trajectories on his throws (a lot of flat fastballs), but the final game against Carolina showed a bit more in this area, and Penix can certainly continue to grow, which would only make life easier for a receiver group headed by Drake London and Darnell Mooney.
As for Robinson, it’s the package of physical traits that allows him to capitalize on the mental side, but to me, Robinson’s standout trait is his next-level vision. I can’t recall another back who was so creative in the context of staying on his run path; Robinson is extremely adept at using his incredible lateral agility to set up blocks, and he is just as good at darting back in to take advantage of the block once he’s helped his lineman by setting up the defender. The flashes of elite ability were there from early in his rookie season, but Robinson hit a new level last season, and as spectacular as Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, and others might have been, I think there is a strong argument that Robinson is currently the best back in the NFL.
When he’s getting a breather, the Falcons are in good shape, as Tyler Allgeier continues to be an extremely productive back. I don’t necessarily agree with the idea that Allgeier is the better zone runner, because I think Bijan is elite running in any blocking scheme, but there’s no question that Allgeier is terrific in zone concepts and allows the Falcons to maintain an above-average run game even with Bjian on the sidelines.
The line is a bit more of a question. They are swapping centers, with Ryan Neuzil taking over for Drew Dalman, but Neuzil’s past performances in Dalman’s absences suggest they may not skip a beat there, particularly as Dalman, though solid, was far from a dominant player at the position.
The questions are more about the players they have in a scheme built around Michael Penix. Right tackle Kaleb McGary revived his career under Arthur Smith, but while he’s solid in the run game, McGary is a liability in pass protection, as Atlanta’s new coaching staff learned in Week 1 against T.J. Watt last year. Jake Matthews continues to be an incredibly consistent, above-average player at left tackle, but despite playing nearly every game over the past 11 years, Matthews has a single Pro Bowl to his name in terms of post-season accolades, which reflects the fact that he’s not a dominant player at the position. The player next to him, left guard Matthew Bergeron, was as big a liability as McGary in pass pro during his rookie season, and while right guard Chris Lindstrom brings elite mobility and might be the best in the NFL at getting to the second level in the run game, he arguably has more downright awful reps in pass protection than anyone else who gets thrown into the All-Pro discussion.
All things considered, this group should continue to be an exciting watch, but there is a feeling of fragility to the setup. If there is an injury on the offensive line, the Falcons have a handful of journeymen, but they’re not in the same spot as last year, when a potential future starter (Neuzil) is ready to step in. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson also insisted on continuing to deploy Kyle Pitts as a traditional tight end on a regular basis, where Pitts is one of the worst point-of-attack blockers in the NFL, which doesn’t lend a ton of excitement to how he will develop in 2025. I’d be interested in what would happen if the Falcons moved him to receiver, where he could theoretically be a “plus” in the run-game as an add-on piece on the perimeter, but asking him to play in his current role seems to be a lot like putting your head down and running straight into a door to open it, rather than turning the knob.
Defensive Tackle
Starters: David Onyemata, Ruke Orhorhoro, Morgan Fox
Backups: Zach Harrison, Kentavius Street, Ta’Quon Graham, Brandon Dorlus (2024 4th Rd)
Edge
Starters: Leonard Floyd, Arnold Ebikete
Backups: Jalon Walker (1st Rd), James Pearce (1st Rd), DeAngelo Malone, Bralen Trice (2024 3rd Rd)
Linebackers
Starters: Kaden Elliss, Troy Anderson
Backups: Divine Deablo, JD Bertrand
Safety
Starters: Jessie Bates, Jordan Fuller
Backups: Xavier Watts (3rd Rd), DeMarcco Hellams, Kevin King
Slot
Starter: Dee Alford
Backups: Billy Bowman (4th Rd)
Outside CB
Starters: A.J. Terrell, Mike Hughes
Backups: Clark Phillips, Mike Ford, Keith Taylor
Defense Overview
The additions of first-round picks Jalon Walker and James Pearce better go a long way, because outside of the fact that linebacker Kaden Elliss, safety Jessie Bates, and cornerback A.J. Terrell are on this roster, there isn’t a lot to write home about.
Beyond that trio, things get rough. Defensive tackle David Onyemata got a big contract when he came over from New Orleans (along with Elliss and then-defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen) two years ago, but that hasn’t translated to big-time impact. The Falcons added Ruke Orhorhoro in the second round of the 2024 Draft, but Orhorhoro was fairly quiet as a rookie, and the rest of the defensive tackle room is made up of players like Morgan Fox, Ta’Quon Graham, and Kentravius Street, veterans who have consistently profiled as adequate contributors in complementary roles, but who aren’t going to move the needle.
The big jolt of talent is on the edges, where the Falcons signed veteran Leonard Floyd in addition to drafting Walker and Pearce in the first round. Atlanta still has Arnold Ebikete, a pure finesse rusher who showed some improvement in his third season (albeit clearing an exceptionally low bar to do that), and who could figure into the mix if Walker and Pearce don’t hit the ground running.
That pass rush needs to be the heartbeat of the defense, because the back end looks patchy. As exciting a player as Elliss is in terms of generating “flash” plays as an off-ball linebacker, his pass-rushing instincts and nose for the ball are offset by some inconsistencies in the down-to-down grind of the position, and he doesn’t have a partner capable of cleaning that up for him. Troy Andersen and J.D. Bertrand have been consistent liabilities when they’ve gotten on the field, and while adding Divine Deablo to the linebacker crew brings a lot of speed, they wouldn’t have gotten Deablo at a negligible price if he had much of anything in terms of instincts for the position.
The back end is a weakness; veteran cornerback Mike Hughes will compete, but he’s in a group of outside cornerbacks who profile as the last “competent” starters in the NFL, and slot cornerback Dee Alford is arguably a weak point. The safety spot next to Jessie Bates will likely be filled by mediocre veteran Jordan Fuller or third-round rookie Xavier Watts; if Watts, or 4th-round cornerback Billy Bowman, can outplay their draft expectations and impact this defense, it would go a long way to shoring up the group, but those are unlikely dice rolls with mid-round picks.
Jessie Bates makes up for a lot of sins - he’s one of the best in the NFL at baiting opposing quarterbacks into mistakes - and I thought A.J. Terrell had his best season, with his Week 17 battle with Terry McLaurin sticking out as a particularly memorable game. Unfortunately, the secondary is a “weakest link” position group, and as good as Bates and Terrell might be, their presence isn’t translating to good overall defense because there are so many other spots to pick at in the passing game.
Overall Outlook
The Saints may drop out of the running with the news Derek Carr is retiring due to a shoulder injury, but the Bucs, Falcons, and Panthers should all have something of a chance in an NFC South that should be heavy on offense and light on defense. So in terms of living up to expectations in 2025, Atlanta should be in fairly good shape; things would have to go very wrong for them to not compete for a division title.
The question is more about what the ceiling is beyond that. These are very different styles of teams, so it’s certainly not a one-to-one comparison, but this situation reminds me a lot of the Geno Smith-led Seattle Seahawks and the current version of the Miami Dolphins. There’s no disputing that these teams brought a lot of positives, but while they were able to ramp up to the level of “playoff contender”, they were unable to take the next step to “Super Bowl contender”, and they got to a spot where there was no obvious way left to build.
Atlanta has a chance to build something special in the long-term, but if Penix builds on his rookie season, you’d hope that the coaching staff and front office feel confident enough in where they stand to take a deep breath, because if they continue to tap into future assets rolling into the third year of Penix’s rookie deal, they are going to wake up in the 2027 offseason with a quarterback looking for an extension and a lack of resources to supplement the team around him.
The one positive, through all of this mess, is that Fontenot appears to have found a guy at quarterback. With that piece in place, hopefully things can calm down, and the Falcons use a steadier approach to build a roster that can remain competitive around Penix for years to come.